b4breeding

When I opened the Sale of the Stars catalogue for the Australasian Classic and the New Zealand Premier yearling sales 2013, I got a shock. I sort of expected what I saw, but the extent of it still took me by surprise.

It wasn’t just the dominance in numbers of Bettor’s Delight yearlings; it was the lack of significant numbers from many very good and newer sires who, if they don’t get to showcase progeny at the sales, have a much harder job to do on the track to keep their names in the spotlight.

It’s a good illustration of how decision making by individual breeders can produce an effect that has a much wider impact downstream on the marketplace for yearlings, the likelihood of new sires being available here,  and the depth and width of our future breeding pool of mares.

But before worrying about “are we breeding ourselves into a new corner”, I wanted to have a look at the not-too-distant past and see to what extent this has happened before, with no long term ill effects – indeed some very positive outcomes?

Bear with me while I jot down some of the stats I’ve found, comparing these 2013 yearling sales with sales in 2001 (when In The Pocket and Falcon Seelster were so dominant), and the 2006,  2007 and 2008 sales when the biggest crops of Christian Cullen were yearlings. I’m not getting too precise, and the yearlings offered don’t take into account withdrawals, but the figures are close enough to paint a picture.

I’ve bolded any occasion where one sire’s yearlings are 20% or more of a sale – because this is the level where I believe (looking at those sales) dominance starts to dramatically reduce the numbers that other sires have on offer.

2001 New Zealand Yearling Sales

Total yearlings in catalogue = 534
North Island – 163, In The Pocket 34 = 20.8%, Falcon Seelster 22 = 13.4%
South Island – 371, In The Pocket 68 = 18.3%, Falcon Seelster 68 = 18.3%
Other sires with good numbers at both sales Holmes Hanover, Soky’s Atom, Fake Left
Of total yearlings – In the Pocket 102 = 19%, Falcon Seelster 90 = 16.8%

2006 New Zealand Yearling Sales

Total yearlings in catalogue = 567
North Island – 169, Christian Cullen 37 = 21%, next biggest In the Pocket 24 = 14%
Other sires’ yearlings with good numbers Presidential Ball, Falcon Seelster, Pacific Rocket (each 7%), Mach Three and Live Or Die (4% each)
South Island – 398,Christian Cullen 49 = 12%, next biggest Falcon Seelster 45 = 11.3%
Other sires’ yearlings with good numbers In The Pocket, Live Or Die and Mach Three (each 7-9%)
Of total sales yearlings – Christian Cullen 86 = 15% , Falcon Seelster 58 = 10.2%, In The Pocket 55 = 9.7%

2007 New Zealand Yearling Sales

Total yearlings in catalogue = 576
North Island – 162, Christian Cullen 26 = 16%, next biggest Presidential Ball 22 = 13.5%
Other sires’ yearlings with good numbers Dream Away 13 = 8%, Badlands Hanover and In The Pocket (each 6%)
South Island – 414, Christian Cullen 67 = 16%, next biggest Badlands Hanover 34 = 8.2%, Red River Hanover 32 = 7.7%
Other sires’ yearlings with good numbers Falcon Seelster 28 = 6.7%, Courage Under Fire 28 =6.7%,  Live Or die 25 = 6%, In The Pocket 19 = 4.5%
Of total sales yearlings – Christian Cullen 93 = 16%
(And out of interest Bettor’s Delight total sales yearlings in 2007 was 14, his first real commercial crop to the sales)

2008 New Zealand Yearling Sales

Total yearlings in catalogue 700
North Island 201, Christian Cullen 29 = 14.4%
South Island 499, Christian Cullen 46 = 9.2%
Of total sales yearlings – Christian Cullen 75 = 16%

2013 New Zealand Yearling Sales

Total yearlings in catalogue = 515
North Island – 180, Bettor’s Delight 56 = 31%, Art Major 22 = 12%, Christian Cullen 17 = 9.4%, next biggest Mach Three 16 = 8.8%
South Island (Day 1) – 183 , Bettor’s Delight 44 = 24%, Art Major 24 = 13%, Christian Cullen 19 = 10.3%, next biggest Changeover 15 = 8%
South Island (Day 2) – 152 , Changeover 20 = 13% (Bettor’s Delight 7 = 4.6%)
Of total sales yearlings – Bettor’s Delight 107 = 20%, Art Major 47 = 9%, Changeover 39 = 7.5%

Closest to Bettor’s Delight’s dominance at the yearling sales was in 2001 (In The Pocket) and 2006 (Christian Cullen), but in both cases their dominance was tempered by good representation from a number of other sires.

In 2013 we have an extraordinary situation at the North Island (Karaka) sales were almost one third of yearlings offered are by Bettor’s Delight. And at the Premier Day 1 sale in Christchurch a quarter are sired by Bettor’s Delight.

The implications for the vendor are huge. The pressure is now on them to produce absolute top quality Bettor’s Delight yearlings, because buyers have such a range to choose from and they will be able to pick and pay optimum price only for those they perceive as being a desirable type or with a very strong pedigree. As happened with some of the larger Christian Cullen yearling sale crops (although his service fee was usually higher than Bettor’s Delight) there may be many vendors whose profit margin might not beas big as they hoped. The marketplace may well self-correct over the next few years when even bigger crops of Bettor’s Delight are coming through the sales, and breeders move to other sires with the aim of being less ‘one of a crowd’ and more having a point of difference.

In the meantime, however, I am more concerned about the paucity of yearling sale representation by some top quality or newer sires commercial sires. If they don’t get their chance to showcase yearlings at the top sales (in particularly the Australasian Classic at Karaka and Day 1 at the Premier) their profile for the next breeding season is lower.  Buyers of their yearlings also have a hard job to do chasing the Bettor’s Delights in the Sales Series races, which involve quite a commitment of payments.

Mach Three’s representation is lower than I expected, and so is American Ideal’s and Badland Hanover’s.  Jereme’s Jet and Lis Mara racehorses are starting to show up more as 3yos, but they are low profile in the 2013 catalogue, particularly Lis Mara. Santanna Blue Chip’s yearlings last year (not many) were lovely looking types and he has 10 yearlings in the 2013 sales, and Art Official also has 10, but both would have probably liked a few more (out of 500 plus on sale) to show off at the premium sales days. Real Desire is well down on numbers, but was well down on foals for that year so that is no surprise. McArdle is struggling for a sales profile although on the track is fillies (which in the past seemed his weak point) have started to show up and there are some nice colts currently racing by him as well. Given the nice type he produces and the large number of foals he had, I would have expected to see some more Gotta Go Cullects.

The winner, apart from Bettor’s Delight and runner up Art Major, is Changeover – with a total of 39 yearlings mainly in the South Island sales, he can display enough range of type and mares to make his mark if they are up to scratch. Christian Cullen may also have a good year for vendors, with fewer for buyers to choose from and a lower service fee giving a better profit margin, and there are some good mares still being loyal to the king!

So there are plenty of sires represented, butmost do not have the numbers they really need to make an impact, an impression. One factor may be that the range of sires that produced this 2013 yearling sale crop of yearlings was not as great in number or as exciting (in terms of new sires in the higher fee/commercial bracket) as what we have had this current breeding season, for example.  Another factor is that the economical climate was rapidly changing, contracting, and breeders for potential sale horses responded to that, I guess, by playing it safe. And Bettor’s Delight is about as safe and sure as you can get these days. And yet another factor may be the contraction of our breeding mare population and too many sires to choose from, particularly in the affordable end of the service fee, which means (1) many sires get fewer mares and (2) breeders may opt to put their mares to cheaper sires and bypass the expense of yearling sale preparation and commercial risk this time around.

The dominance of Bettor’s Delight has some pros and cons, I believe.

Firstly the pros –

• He is a top, proven sire and adds a lot of quality in terms of producing a good percentage of starters/winners to foals
• He is known as a sire who injects speed into many of his progeny, although part of that may be attributable to his ‘golden cross’ with In The Pocket mares and others who carry speed genes themselves;
• His pedigree is quite an outcross for many of our mares and includes elements like a successful branch of the Cam Fella siring line (Cam’s Card Shark) and the excellent maternal line of his dam Classic Wish (which I examined in a previous blog that looked at his full brother Roll With Joe).

The cons –

• Any dominance of a sire carries with it the risk that the future mare breeding pool is skewed until market forces and time even it out again;
• His sheer volume of foals continues to pour Bettor’s Delight yearlings into the mix, and subsequently oversupplying the market and risking poorer returns for those who bred to him;
• He overshadows some really top new sires who may not remain available to us if they cannot get the numbers or quality of mares they deserve.

Longer term opportunities:

• The stud that finds the sire or sires who appear to click brilliantly with Bettor’s Delight mares will have a field day;
• These sires may very well be our own ‘colonial’ bred sires with their quirky pedigree structures and their underlying influences of Tar Heel, Direct Scooter, Albatross, Most Happy Fella etc so ironically this dominance of Bettor’s Delight could aid the success of New Zealand bred sires who are arriving at just the right time.
• Breeders that have already moved to other quality sires will pick up the benefits at future sales as the buying market shifts.

That’s a long blog, but a fascinating issue. Please leave comments or email me direct on bee.raglan@xtra.co.nz and I will continue looking at this issue and other views on it in future.