Yearling sales are only three months away – the catalogue is already out. Why not use the sales as a way to test your skills and breeding theories? Can you be as clever as Cran Dalgety, as good as Geoffrey Small or as magic as Mark Purdon in finding the nuggets of gold amongst the hundreds of hopefuls?
This is a great time to test your ability to pick future winners based on their pedigree, family performance and individual type.
By yourself, or with a group of friends, select your own ‘virtual stable’ of yearlings and follow their careers.
There’s no need to waste sellers’ time with inspections – just use what is publicly available such as the catalogue, further pedigree databases if you want, the videos and photos, and the yearlings themselves on Parade Day and as they go through the ring.
You can make up the rules to suit yourselves, but the key is to keep it simple and avoid long lists that get altered as the reality of racing starts to kick in. The best option is about 6 yearlings each. You can use a budget limit, or just pick without regard for the yearling’s price on the day. It works best if the decision deadline is on Sales Day or soon after.
Follow your sales picks over the next few seasons, and see what happens. At the end of each season, there might be a “shout” by the loser or a TAB voucher for the winner, or whatever suits your pocket and the number of people involved. You might judge success on number of “virtual stable” wins, or the horse with the highest earnings – or for their 2yo season just qualifying is worth celebrating.
Because this is a lot harder than it seems!
I first tried this with a friend at the Sale of the Stars 2009. We each picked three yearlings from the North Island (Australasian Classic) Sale, and three yearlings from the South Island (Premier) Sale. Our six selections had to be split between colts and fillies.
Of the total 12 yearlings we picked between us, only one has (halfway through their 4yo season) earned more than its purchase price. Three of our fillies never qualified but are at stud already.
I was fortunate to pick Charge Forward for my stable, the lovely Grinfromeartoear-Pure Envy colt who cost $30,000 and has so far earned $82,082 with 7 wins. My next best was (by coincidence) another colt bought by the ATC Syndicate – McArmbro, cost $36,000 and ended up with 17 starts for no wins and 8 places and only $5276, before going to Australia and adding 7 wins for a lifetime earning total of $28,301 to date.
My friend’s best pick was Return of the King (Christian Cullen-Hot Blooded Woman) who cost $41,000 and was exported immediately to Australia where he’s managed 6 wins and 20 places for a total of $31,446 to date. Another of her selections was Meet Me In Seattle which looked very promising but then his form tapered off with only $9,674 in the bank so far.
I have a huge respect for those who buy astutely and successfully at yearling sales! I certainly found selecting from the catalogue (on pedigree and family performance alone) was a disadvantage for the South Island sale, as I could neither get there in person or watch it on TV. I can understand why buyers/trainers place a premium on type.
This year we limited selections to four yearlings (either sex) from the 2011 Australasian Classic at Karaka. I watched the Parade without my catalogue, picking out what I liked purely on type before checking its breeding. (In my next blog I’ll talk more about that, because it is a great way to test your biases when it comes to preferred sires!)
My “virtual yearling stable” picks are
Lot 79 Outlaw (Bettors Delight – Gift of Grace),
Lot 154 Alta Christiano (Christian Cullen – Right This Time),
Lot 92 Eye for a Deal (American Ideal – Illmakemyname
and Lot 179 Sugar Ray Brogden (Grinfromeartoear-Swift Mirage).
A friend has picked
Lot 69 Los Amante (Grinfromeartoear – Erinyes),
Lot 146 Mexicano (Christian Cullen – Precious Maiden)
Lot 177 Isa Smiling (Pegasus Spur – Sun Isa)
Lot 27 Assasin – (Art Major – Almost an Angel).
So far we have two qualifiers (Mexicano and Sugar Ray Brogden) and Mexicano has tasted success at the races.
Developing a good eye for a nice horse, good families and potentially successful pedigree matches takes time. The yearling sales are a wonderful opportunity for any of us to observe some of the better bred horses in the flesh and to compare types.
So come on, start your homework now, and I’ll come back to this topic closer to the 2012 yearling sales and compare notes.
Can you pick a champion?
b4breeding 