b4breeding

Following on again from the discussion initiated by David Sinclair about the influence of Tar Heel with Bettor’s Delight and He’s Watching.

In reply Dot Schmidt suggested that “To make the figures relevant a % of performers to foals is needed.” So I have tried to rectify that with some information below from the NZSBA/HRNZ databases.

Below is an extract from the very good list of crosses by sire (and separately by damsire) which is produced each year by the NZ Standardbred Breeders Assn. It is available on the association’s website, but in a members only section that requires a password. This section shows the crosses of Bettor’s Delight with mares from all other sires. The report shows the results in terms of % starters and winners, but also 2yo starters/winners, 3yo starters/winners, and several other categories relating to performance (times/stakes). It is a great resource for checking anecdotal wisdom against facts. Unfortunately I can’t reproduce it here.

This is for statistics up to the end of the 2014/2015 season, so end of July 2015.

It is interesting to see at a glance that the so-called “golden cross” of In The Pocket (ITP) mares with Bettor’s Delight doesn’t show up spectacularly on a purely winners percentage basis. But the number of foals produced on that cross (207 foals 2yo+ at 31 July 2015) is by far the largest for Bettor’s Delight as a sire.

When it comes to the statistics on percentage of foals that have made 50k plus, 11% of foals by BD from ITP mares reach that level or higher. It is still not as high a percentage as for some other damsires – looking at the results from BD x Albert Albert mares (a total of 16 foals), you can see below that 81% have been winners, and in the larger chart it shows that 3 of those 16 foals won over $50k (19%).

So can you really call the BD x ITP cross a “golden” one?

The cross with BG’s Bunny mares (including the great Adore Me) has also produced a high percentage strike rate for small numbers – from just 6 foals, two thirds have been winners and one third (2 foals) have won $5ok or more. However if you look at the detail you will find Adore Me’s dam Excuse Me makes up almost all of those foals! (More on that aspect at end of this blog)

Probably a fairer comparison with the Bettor’s Delight/In The Pocket cross are other crosses that have generated a larger number of foals.

Bettor’s Delight at Woodlands Studof foals.

The cross with Holmes Hanover mares has resulted in 121 foals aged 2yo +.  As you can see, the percentage of starters and winners compares very well with ITP mares and that may add to David Sinclair’s reasoning about the influence of Tar Heel – the figures for NZ foals certainly support his theory. Of course both BG’s Bunny and Holmes Hanover are sons of Albatross, so is that an influence? The two other sons of Albatross (Soky’s Atom and Vance Hanover) in the list also show good ratios of winners, but less so in terms of real high class performers (respectively 7% and 0% winners of $50k+).

The other damsire to rate closer to In The Pocket in terms of mares going to Bettor’s Delight is Christian Cullen, with 122 foals of 2yo+ on this cross). You can see his figures below for starters and winners (54%, 40%) and in terms of $50k+ performers he rates at 10%, which is pretty much the same as his own sire In The Pocket.

The crosses with Bettor’s Delight that have really shown up in terms of percentage of $50k+ earners – regardless of the numbers of foals – are Albert Albert (19%), BG’s Bunny (33%), Camtastic (20%), Dream Away (16%), Road Machine (20%), Smooth Fella (18%) and What’s Next (20%). I took 15% as my cut-off point. I haven’t looked at the pedigrees of those damsires to see if there are any common elements.

Which leads me to the other element that we must keep in mind regarding these crosses – the mare’s full pedigree plays a role in the cross, not just her damsire.

When you look at some of the detail of these results you find that a mare might have gone back two or more times to Bettor’s Delight for good results, indicating it is an overall good match with the mare as a total package (pedigree, conformation etc). An example is the 100% foals/winners for the Bettor’s Delight cross with Son Of Afella and Walton Hanover mares. You can check those for yourself by using the wonderful Harness Racing NZ Info Horse database, searching for Bettor’s Delight, then filtering on Dam Sire drop down option. See here for the Walton Hanover example. The mares Tosca Hanover (dam of 2015 Cup winner Arden Rooney) has been to Bettor’s Delight twice, both winners. Likewise Touch of Grace. Putting On The Glitz has been three times for three winners.

So I guess it depends what criteria you use – simply foals/winners, or looking at the likelihood of getting something special. Often early success by one or two foals generates talk of a “golden cross” which then adds breeding numbers on that cross and perhaps a better chance of further success. That’s why these statistics are interesting, as they show some sires have had a very good strike rate with Bettor’s Delight from much more limited numbers than In The Pocket has had, and particularly with individual mares.

Breeders who know their mares and who “think b4 breeding” may be more likely to find their own “golden cross”.