b4breeding

Karaka Parade Ring 2016

Back today from three days of yearling sales as a vendor and observer, and I am still trying to fathom the puzzle that it gave us.

Reports have covered the basics of the highs and lows (with a focus on the highs of course), and the huge difference in middle market between the two venues. I won’t repeat all of that. I do offer congratulations to those who had a good sale, and empathy for those who had a very average one, and heartfelt commiserations to those who took a beating.

What I will do over the next few blogs is think about the short, medium and long term implications for the industry – not just for breeders although we will start there.

For me, the question is this: How can we progress as an industry if we are not willing to invest in new products? How can we expand our top product base without it being at the expense of breeders?

The glaring result of the sales is that almost all newer sires were simply not wanted – and some who have only had a crop or two racing so far are already struggling as commercial sires.

And then there is fashion – what is “in” at sales time, compared to what was “in” when we booked our mares. Unfortunately for breeders we are making decisions almost 3 years before we line them up as sale yearlings. It is hard to be nimble. Which is why going to top proven sires is where the top breeders are now consistently heading.

And the reception for sires is so different here from North America where buyers will eagerly seek out the top new boys and give them a go.

But is sticking with a handful of proven sires the longer term answer? The average for those sires is certainly well up on others, but the more product buyers have to pick over, the more there will be a number of Bettor’s Delights, Mach Threes, American Ideals and Art Majors who fail to meet the ever-rising bar and who will sell for little if any profit. And that scenario can be even more devastating for smaller breeders who have carried the risk in the hope of getting a good return.

I know the yearlings presented at sales are a small proportion of all yearlings bred. But in many ways the sales are the “canary in the mine” for our industry, giving us a heads-up about its overall health for the future.

Over the 3 days I listened to many breeders (small and also medium sized) who have struggled to make anything overall, and some who will be really assessing if it is worth carrying on.

While that may happen every year, I think it would be cavalier to think “they’ll be back”. Yes, many will be. But I think they will cut right back and be more selective, which may lead to a reduction in foal numbers rather than the increase we need.

Breeders have responded to clear messages about raising the bar of their broodmares and the presentation of their yearling – the standard of product was high across both venues in terms of the catalogue page and the product in the ring.

The new message for breeders is that our role is to test out new sires until they are proven enough for buyers to pay higher prices. Breeders will be expected to carry that risk and cost by being willing to take a loss – or by carrying the costs even further through ownership.

I’m not sure that’s a great model for any industry going into the future. And there may be lessons we can learn from other industries about how to invest in and support new product development and niche marketing that could be useful.

I’ll be looking at that in some future blogs.

Back to day job this afternoon, so will post up some more photos tonight. Personally, we sold our 3 yearlings, but were hit by the sire choice – we weren’t in fashion. I set my reserves very realistically and just scrapped in, for which I am grateful. My aim is always to breed the best I can from the mare rather than aim for the top sales price. We’ve had good sales in the past, so I am not complaining. But even so, the flat results have given me a wake-up call and a prod to reassess my breeding plans. Will I be alone in that?

As always, your views and insights welcome – as a comment or direct to me at bee.raglan@xtra.co.nz