b4breeding

Here’s a quick analysis of some of the New Zealand yearling sales results this year.

As usual, I am looking to get a more realistic pictures overall than an average price will give you, and at the results for breeders/vendors as a group rather than for individuals who may have had a great sale or have the numbers to even out their return.

These statistics look at the results of the auction on the day, so I have not considered those who got no bid, withdrawn or passed in. (Many or were passed in may have subsequently sold privately, but I will assume the range of prices will reflect those from the auctions so will not dramatically alter the analysis.)

At this stage I have not differentiated between pacing and trotting yearlings. My overall comment on the trotters is that both sales were flatter than I had anticipated for trotters given the rising number of races for trotters now part of our racing landscape.

Lot 114 Mach Three filly x Silence Is Golden (sold for $17,500)

Australasian Classic at Karaka

•  128 yearlings in total were sold/bought at auction.
• The median was $40,000. That means that roughly 50% of horses sold for $40k or more, and 50% sold for $40k or less.
• 24 yearlings (19%) sold for $15,000 or less.
• 47 yearlings (37%) sold for $50,000 or more.

Premier Day at Christchurch

• 373 yearlings in total were sold/bought at auction.
• The median was $20,000. That means that roughly 50% of horses sold for $20k or more, and 50% sold for $20k or less.
• 109 yearlings (39%) sold for $15,000 or less.
• 47 yearlings (17%) sold for $50,000 or more.

The statistics paint a picture of sales that are worlds apart. That has always been the case, but becoming even more so. Take into account that the costs or raising and preparing a yearling in the South Island are significantly cheaper than in the upper North Island, although of course that will differ quite a bit depending on whether a breeder/vendor has the ability to agist on their own land and even grow some of their own feed, hay or haylage, whether they are preparing themselves or paying someone else, and what sort of deal they have managed to get for the service fee. Larger scale breeders have an edge here for sure, in both islands.

Lot 371 Betterthancheddar x Saccha Maguire (sold for $11,000)

So given the statistics, there are some real challenges for South Island breeders and some creative thinking about how to make yearling sales part of a wider picture that allows vendors some structured options. I like the idea of somehow combining an entry fee into the sales with a large discount on (or free) entry to a ready to run or mixed sale later in the year (or even timed for a late 2yo aged sale to give yearlings more time to develop), for those who don’t manage to sell. But this still puts the onus on breeders/vendors to carry more costs and perhaps for no greater return – or for a greater loss. For many breeders, the option of retaining yearlings to race or sell later is an added expense rather than a valid option, particularly for fillies. They may well have others in the paddock at home who are tagged for that.

What about some sort of bonus for buyers who pin-hook yearlings for over $15,000 and put them in a ready to run sale? That gives an immediate return to the vendor and an incentive for the buyer and may bring back the smaller trainer-buyer who seemed to be missing from this year’s sales.

Lot 432 Lucky Chucky x Sunny Moment (sold for $8000)

The $20,000 to $35,000 bracket is where costs are at least covered and the buyer has a bit of scope to make something as well if the horse turns out okay. The affordability to buyers, who are also taking a risk, is very important factor to keep in mind. At the higher end of that $20-35,000 price range, there is something to plough back into improvements and even to breed an additional foal next season. In the South Island sale only 18% of yearlings fetch a price in that $20-35,000 bracket.

For the North Island, I think the trend to higher prices merely reflects how breeders up here have taken up the message to go to proven sires, particularly for pacers. Luckily Alabar in particular have stood some of the newer sires at realistic prices (in the $4-6000 service fee range), so breeders who are willing to take a risk on newer sires (like myself) can still cover costs and make a wee bit at around $20,000. But there is nothing left to put into expansion of breeding.

Fashion is also so hard to follow – hindsight makes us wise. Somebeachsomewhere has been out of fashion in New Zealand for several years – but now is the best thing since sliced bread. Rock N Roll Heaven was in favour at first, but now there is word around that some of his foals can be hard to gait. He was dropped in a big way at these NZ sales. Interestingly, that comment about gait was also the same comment I recall about Somebeachsomewhere foals originally. Ah, fashion is fickle and time will tell.

And if the proof of the pudding is in the eating, or on the racetrack, I still believe that some sort of performance bonus paid to the breeder as and if the horse performs makes the most sense. It rewards the product that performs and the person that bred it.