Coming up soon – some updates on siring legacies down under, and other interesting observations…But right now, I’m full on with my day job and in the weekends I am topping paddocks and clearing chook runs, so give me a break if I don’t post anything up until next weekend.
Oh I would love your comments/advice on this match – The Blue Lotus x Raging Bull. Lovely symmetry. I am very tempted. What do you think?
I’m working on a blog about (again) the trouble we are having getting a strong foothold down under for siring (sons of sires) versus having sensational broodmare sires.
b4breeding 
Certainly symmetrical but an inbred mating imo which may have spectacular results which are not guaranteed to be positive. I doubt ithis match fits the rational with which you planned your matches previously. If your looking for an inexpensive “project” to breed one for yourself to try then it may be worth a go but I doubt it would be a genuine candidate for the yearling sales. Perhaps Raging Bull will buck the trend but to date the CC sons have not proven to be commercial successes. No announcements as yet but I imagine Control The Momment and perhaps even Racing Hill will shuttle next year and first season sires usually attract premiums at the yearling sales. Both have pedigrees that complement/build on the Abercrombie/Albatross cross, Golden Miss family, ITP, and MHF/Shadow Wave in The Blue Lotus, though both are by sires not yet tested as sires of sires the Weatern Hanover and Cam Fella sire lines have been strong to date.
Good points and you are right about it being a diversion from my usual approach, but I am always open to trying other approaches. I don’t see 3×3 as inbreeding though, especially given the sex reverse. Commercial is hard to define. Both Raging Bulls at the yearling sales this year sold fine, but would that carry through to larger numbers? Inevitably buyers would sort on individual type and family, and some would, many wouldn’t. But in my mind Raging Bull has the breeding to be perhaps the best of CC’s sons, because he is crossed back into quality American bloodlines instead of my downunder bloodlines. I must check out the breeding of those other potential sires you mention.
What do you consider inbreeding? The definition I’m aware of and use relates to the mating of two individuals who are more closely related then the breed average. In its simpleist form that is 3×3 crosses in Stbs and 4×4 crosses in Tbs. Inbred matings increase the degree of homogosity which can be a desirable outcome with regard to setting things in the offspring such as type but is not proven to be beneficial with regard to ensuring improved performance outcomes. Homogosity also markedly increases the likelyhood of deleterious recessive genes being expressed though I don’t think to date the stb has anything like the really nasty ones found in Arabians and Quarter horses and the deficits if expressed will be more likely to be in temprement and conformation.
Forget this specific mating for a moment ( 2 reverse sex 3×3 crosses is not that easy to achieve) and think simply of 3×3 matings, particularly on the sire line which is quite readily achieved in a short period of time. Over the course of around 150 years of Stb breeding if these matings were particularly more successful then others at producing champions I’m sure it would obviously be so now. Of course there are champions bred this way, Betterthancheddar 3×3 on the sire lines to Cam Fella for example and more recently Always B Miki 3×3 through daughters of Big Towner which is not as easily done. . But that is the nature of the rules of genetic variation and I’ve no doubt if someone did an analysis of opportunity ( the number of times these matings have occurred ) versus the outcomes ( number of champion/successful offspring) 3×3 matings would prove to be a low percentage play.
It is the cusp of inbreeding and linebreeding, I guess. I think it depends to some extent on where the individual is located in the pedigree and not just the fact an individual is duplicated. For example, what a horse can deliver genetically in the siring line role is different from what he can deliver in the damsire role. That is one reason I liked the symmetry of this match, very complementary elements from two males that are both outstanding sires and outstanding broodmare sires.
The old adage is when it works it’s called linebreeding and when it doesn’t it’s inbreeding! Certainly if What do you mean when you say a horse can offer different things genetically when it’s in the sire line then when it’s in the dam line? I presume that is a reference to the Y and X chromosome?
True there are more genes on the X ( but no actual large heart gene as hypothesised by Mariann Hann) then on
the Y chromosome which pretty much only makes the offspring male. But the X chromosome in the case of an egg and an X or a Y in the case of a sperm
cell is only one of the 32 chromosomes in each that combine to create the new 64 chromosome horse upon
conception. Where a stallion is in the pedigree affects whether an X or Y chromosome was passed on but the other 31 chromosomes are passed on regardless of whether the stallion is in the sire line or the damsire line or the dam line and you don’t know how similar or dissimilar those are. That is for example Christian Cullen got a Y chromosome from his sire ITP obviously because he is male. Zenterfold got an X chromosome from her sire ITP because she is female. Both Zenterfold and Christian Cullen received another 31 chromosomes from ITP and there’s no telling how alike or unalike these chromosomes are. It’s not so much that a sire can contribute something different depending on
whether he is on the sire line or on the dam sire line as that he can contribute
something different (or the same) to each individual offspring, as can a mare. Hence even full siblings,horse or
human, can be very different, somewhat different, somewhat similar or uncannily similar. And hence why if a mating looks good on paper it will often need to be repeated more then once to reap the benefits
So regardless of the reverse sex thing the Raging Bull The Blue Lotus Foal will receive 25% of its genes from ITP and 25% of its genes from Artsplace with an unknown number of these being homozygous.
I hope you could follow that. If you or anyone for that matter, is going to try these type of matings then it should be at the very least as you say with sires of the proven calibre of Artsplace and ITP.
Yes and no. I think sometimes we complicate breeding by too much focus on one aspect versus another. We are not planting fields of corn. Often we are breeding one or two mares to a handful a suitable sires. So really, even over time, statistics are hard to set in concrete. The are just flags that may help our direction. In this case – yes. You’re right. Two world class sires/broodmare sires (proven) on a reverse sex 3×3 cross. That is a very potent. But other factors come into play – from good match of type, adding to qualities you want, commercial considerations or not, and of course price. Frankly I think this is a really interesting breeding match, at a low cost, but with potential to be really desirable, because Raging Bull has a really good “if only” reputation. Above all, Dot, he has the ingredient that is missing is every other CC son trying to be a sire. But I’ll blog on that soon.You can guess it of course, because you know your stuff. Interesting, but at this stage of my breeding career I am willing to take a chance. My aim is always to breed the best racehorse that I can.
Of course other things are important. Phenotype is as important as genotype. No matter how attractive a mating looks on paper serious consideration need to be given if there are question marks on the temperament and soundness of the individuals or lines involved. There’s also the question of nature versus nurture. Good rearing, training, horsemanship and luck ( or more specifically the absence of bad luck) all play a significant part.
Your proposing a reverse sex 3×3 cross to 2 stallions who are world class no doubt. You’ve written that “That is very potent” But potent for what? presumably superior racing performance but what science or historical precedence do you base that on? Such close matings aren’t supported in the pedigree matching literature that I’ve read and that which I know we have both read.
Of course pedigree matching is still just a theory and unproven. And I at least have to remind myself regularly that correlation,
of which there are many in
pedigree matching theory and
the stb breed does not
automatically equal causation,
I can’t recall any champions or historically significant racing individuals in the breed that have been bred the way you propose. If you want to take a chance on it it’s your call.
Really respect your knowledge of breeding, dot. You raise good questions. Just based on NZ breedings, the cross of Artsplace to ITP mares has resulted in 23 registered foals, 17 of them qualified, 12 starters/12 winners. The cross of Christian Cullen to Artsplace mares (same cross as Raging Bull) – 23 registered foals of racing age, 17 qualifiers, 14 starters, 12 winners to date. Those are pretty good stats. The reverse matches i.e. Artsplace over CC mares and ITP over Artsplace mares – numbers are so small it is hard to draw conclusions, but about 1 or 2 winnesr from 4 foals in each case. The cross of Grin over ITP mares (same cross as the Blue Lotus) is 27 registered foals, 20 qualifiers, 18 starters, 12 winners to date. Again, quite a high strike rate. So I see Artsplace and In The Pocket/Christian Cullen as being two lines that seem to nick well, as well as each of them being outstanding sires and damsires in their own right. I wouldn’t feel the same way if the duplicated sires were of less quality or had less evidence of synergy. So that is what is behind my use of the word “potent”. Basically, good historical results here.
Also what I feel leavens this mix is that the remaining parts of the pedigree are very different and bring in many other elements – some good doses of Adios in the background, and the usual Meadow Skipper repeats back a bit, but lots of other maternal lines and damsires. So the inbreeding part is balanced out by those other elements.
It is fun discussing this sort of thing. I am open to other people’s views and also to trying new things. The Blue Lotus’ yearling filly is the result of a competition I ran for blog readers to put forward their suggested sires and reasoning. I’ve always enjoyed having my thinking challenged and having to put forward reasons!
hi bee could you check grin crossed too jate lobell line mares and that cross is far better
Sorry not sure what match you are referring to. Will have a look and get baCK. The thing is, we sometimes latch on to nicks that over time are diluted and need something else to come in and create a new nick that takes it up a level. Yes, there is an obvious nick with Jate Lobell but where do we go from there? This is the most challenging question for breeders – foresight combined with hindsight.
sorry bee ,i meant reversing a jate lobell line sire to your mare the blue lotus
Who did you have in mind, Barry, that is available in New Zealand?
hi bee ask alabar for semen too village jasper ,