b4breeding

Limiting sires’ books

April 21, 2013 by b4breeding

Number 3 of my 4 solutions for the New Zealand standardbred breeding industry is to place a limit of 100 on all NZ available stallions for the next 3 years (i.e. number of NZ mares served regardless of where the sire stands).

Many people will say there is no point in even raising this issue, because it was done and dusted many years ago when there was a legal ruling based, presumably (because I cannot find any easy reference to it) on the “restraint of trade” argument. That was the end of the matter.

But I believe a short sharp period of limited books will, in conjunction with the other 3 solutions I’m putting forward, provide a bridge to the future for our Kiwi standardbred breeding industry.

The restraint of trade argument is a strong one that carries much weight in Western economies. To be valid, any restraint must be agreed to by both parties (for example in an employment contract), the extent of the restraint needs to be reasonable, and generally there needs to be some benefit in it for both parties.

Restraint of trade is balanced by other commercial laws directing competitive behaviour and preventing cartels, anti-competitive practices, mergers that over-dominate competitive markets, plus consumer protection laws.

These things are presumably intended to set some parameters within which” the market” will usually sort itself out.

And many in the breeding industry will say that is what will happen again here, with a fertile sire like Bettor’s Delight eventually over-supplying the market and breeders moving on to other sires once the average market price takes a downward turn. It’s happened before with Vance Hanover, Sundon, In The Pocket and Christian Cullen. Maybe but given the long cycles of breeding and the current dire straits of the breeding industry, are we willing to wait and see? There are some features of the current situation – the huge dominance of one super sire for several years now; the reduced pool of broodmares; the financial situation of harness racing in general – which means we have to turn the history channel off and get out of our armchair.

So let’s start from the assumption that my proposal is not about a law change, but a change of mindset.

A change from laissez faire reliance on “market forces”, hoping they will trigger changes in time to prevent some very negative flow-on affects.

A change in attitude from “she’ll be right, we’ve seen this all before”. And letting another 3 years slide by to see if it turns out that way.

The aim is to slice the cake more equitably without over-influencing breeders’ choices, during a period where the industry is in danger of contracting to insignificance. Tweaking the market rather than totally controlling it.

What we need is a proactive willingness from stallion owners, breeders and studs. Because in hard times, it is collaboration rather than competition that pulls us through.

Limiting sires’ books over a short period will result in:

A wider distribution of the service fees paid by breeders across studs and sire owners, which enables a healthy diversity of industry players to survive – and that protects the competitive environment of the future.
A wider range of quality sires who will have a chance to prove themselves at stud, because history tells us that we cannot really predict who will become a top sire.
A more diverse future broodmare pool, racing stock and even potential sires.
A stronger representation of different types and new sires at yearling sales, giving more representation to breeders who are willing to look “outside the square”. A sire needs 20 yearlings across the sales to really break into the perception of buyers as a commercial stallion.
And more active, adventurous thinking (hopefully) on the part of breeders when they choose a sire for their mare, instead of just following the crowd and singing the mantra “best to the best”!

So how could a book limit work in practice?

The number of sires affected is very small – probably Bettor’s Delight the most, Mach Three and perhaps American Ideal significantly, a little bit for those sires who sit around 100 mares anyway, such as Gotta Go Cullect and Changeover, Washington VC and maybe a couple of others whose stocks are on the rise.

So initially the impact of any agreement would fall on the owners of Bettor’s Delight. And if agreement needs a sweetner, it could be that a transition which recognises the reduction from a higher income, so it may reduce to a maximum of 175 in Year 1, 150 in Year 2 and 100 in Year 3. Mach Three is owned by the Muscara family, but it may be that the loss of services to him results in a shift of more services to other sires they also own.

Fact is, in each year a book limit may provide a relatively small number of additional services split around other current or new sires – perhaps around 250. The shift would initially favour other popular sires until they also reach the 100 book limit, and then breeders would need to look further afield.

Who would benefit then? There are several quality stallions who hover around the 50/60 mare mark, and are currently at a make or break point but need more time (i.e. more progeny at 3+ years) to gauge yet how good they are as sires; and there are top sires available by frozen semen or shuttling who are at risk of being withdrawn from the market because they can’t get the numbers here to justify their costs.

Book limits by agreement for a short period might not be a game changer, but it could put a “salary cap” type requirement on the “players” in our industry. It’s not a new concept in sport, or industries that look to the wider interests and not just the immediate return.

They’ve done it in America, the bastion of the free market place, so it must be possible!

Just out of interest:

Some of the general principles and pros and cons of limiting numbers of mares that a stallion can serve are canvassed in numerous articles and forums about live service vs artificial insemination, especially comparing the thoroughbred industry (which of course doesn’t allow AI foals to be registered in The Stud Book) and our standardbred industry which embraced AI many years ago. This blog on The Breed blogsite in 2009 provides quite a neat review of the pros and cons and differences between the thoroughbred and standardbred approaches – and is worth going to just to read the fantastic quote at the end of the blog from North American harness racing figure Stan Bergstein.

Posted in Harness racing, Standardbred breeding | 1 Comment »

Breeders’ bonuses – reward success

April 14, 2013 by b4breeding

In this blog I look at the second of my 4 suggestions for the standardbred breeding industry in NZ – Creating meaningful breeders bonuses related to first win or all wins of all NZ-bred horse.

There’s a bit of confusion about the aim of breeders bonuses. Too often the idea gets mixed up with mare credit schemes and incentives for owning fillies and mares. These are very important to the future of the industry and growing the pool of mares.

But in many of the proposals coming forward, the reward goes to owners of the offspring or future breeders, rather than the original breeder of the horse.

Current breeders have four opportunities to get a return on their high risk investment:

By selling the offspring.
By selling the broodmare.
By retaining a foal to race (and therefore changing role to “owner”, and future rewards count as owner’s rewards)
By winning the extremely limited and hard to get breeders bonuses currently available (e.g. winning the Breeders Crown)

What stands out is the “one-off” nature of all these rewards. Getting a financial return often ends the financial connection with that horse as a breeder.

So in reality breeders have few and fragile opportunities to recoup the years of costs and risks they have carried for each foal they produce and each broodmare they look after. Let’s look at a comparable situation for owners, trainers and drivers.

Let’s dramatically reduce race meetings held, and allow owners to line their horse up for three races only per season where the stake money is huge but the chances of winning the race are just the same as now. Would they go for that? I doubt it.

Let’s say we ask trainers to carry all the costs of training a horse and get paid in full only at the end of the horse’s career. Ha! Can’t see that one flying with trainers, unless they have a stable full of top racehorses.

Or say we ask drivers to drive for no cost, but at the end of each year have owners obliged to pay a one-lump sum to their drivers, based on how well horses driven by that driver have performed – but that judgement is up to the owner to decide, perhaps with input from the trainer. Can’t see much support for that one either!

But the industry expects the breeder to carry this sort of risk and cost for several years, and to have their “one lump sum” payment left in the hands of “market forces” i.e. a sale.

What’s the alternative? Not an alternative, because selling is still the best way for breeders to cover their costs in a timely way. However a sales price can be a fickle way of predicting future performance.

Instead I propose a secondary, small income stream for breeders through breeding bonuses that are either

paid (in a smaller amount) per win of the horse bred, regardless of ownership and regardless of where the race is run, or
paid (in much larger amount) for the first win on the horse bred regardless of where the race is run.

Breeders bonuses are a much surer way of rewarding actual success.

They reward breeders of horses who may not have sold for true value at the time but go on to perform well, and recognise the role the breeder has in laying a part of the foundation for this success.

When I say “income stream” I am thinking of the principle, rather than the amount. It is an ongoing return dependant on performance, not a payment that would provide an independent income as such.

How can it be funded? Options include:

an annual fee (per mare bred and perhaps matched by stallion owners for any available sire)
a tiny percentage of all total stake money paid into one breeders bonus pool
an annual subscription so only breeders who want to be part of the scheme pay in, but only their horses trigger a bonus
an additional fee paid at foal registration time (by the current owner who will usually but not always be the breeder)
a fee paid as part of the entrance fee to yearling sales, and bonuses only paid to the breeders of yearling sales racehorses
an optional fee paid at branding time

Or a mix of these, or other suggestions people have. But we mustn’t let the mantra “There is no money” hold us back from looking at options and doing the sums.

Administrative concerns would mean the onus has to be on breeders in the scheme to update their account details, which is why an annual subscription, however low, can help ensure details are current.

The key thing is that the breeder’s bonus comes back to the breeder, not to the current owner. Even mare credits should surely go to the broodmare’s owner or the breeder of the foal, rather than to the current owner of the racing filly/mare who earns it.

I was disappointed to see in the NZ Standardbred Breeders Assn survey on “options for encouraging breeders to stay in the industry” that options for breeder’s bonuses had the bonus returning to the owner. And most of the other options were about mares/fillies racing opportunities and mares credits, which often do not reward current breeders except in a “by association” way. It’s great breeders are being asked, but I wish the options list had been less prescriptive (See survey options at end of this blog).

Yes, the future winning performance of a horse will enhance it’s family’s reputation. But that doesn’t always flow back to the breeder – look at what the sibling of very good 2yo colt Isaiah sold for at this year’s Australasian Yearling Sale as just one example. The building of a family can take years and generations, and sometimes too late for the breeder who most contributed – they may well have sold the mare or quit the industry.

There are a number of breeding schemes in practice around the world. I am hopeful the NZ Standardbred Breeders’ Assn will see the survey as just a wee toe in the water, and come up next with a discussion paper on how various international schemes work, pros and cons, and possible applications for NZ breeders.

Rewarding current breeders has to be a priority.

A coordinated, across-the-board breeding bonus scheme is needed.

What we don’t need is more one-off prizes for the elite races that most good racehorses and their breeders will never to able to achieve.

Options listed in the NZSBA survey mentioned in this blog, which asked breeders to order in preference:
1. Reduced HRNZ fees for DNA testing, branding and foal registration;
2. Financial bonus for winning NZ bred and owned horse i.e same owner/breeder.
3. Financial bonus to the breeder only regardless of ownership
4. Financial bonus paid to owners for winning fillies and mares only
5. More 3YO 4YO and 5YO fillies and mares races at for the lower and medium rated horses
6. One off financial bonus for horses’ first New Zealand start in a race – fillies and mares only, paid to owners.
7. One off financial bonus for horses’ first New Zealand start in a race – all horses, paid to owners.
8. A scheme that puts a winning bonus into a trust for a mare’s future breeding career and redeemable for the first mating.

Posted in Standardbred breeding | 1 Comment »

Foals x two = opportunity

April 8, 2013 by b4breeding

I’ve never been keen on embryo transfers except when the mare is unable (for whatever reason) to carry naturally. I worried about us getting into a ‘factory farming’ situation where the complex mix of nature (genes) and nuture (early upbringing) was lost in the hurry to make money above all.

I’ve changed my mind. Not my principles, just my mind.

I believe the ability to breed two foals per season from one individual mare creates opportunities for the breeder and the industry overall which just cannot be discounted. And I believe two foals should be the limit.

Of course, the idea will be discounted. I am sure there is a piece of obscure government legislation, some racing industry committee or board, or just a clause in HRNZ rules that requires everyone to unanimously agree on changing from the status quo…well, I’m not interested at this stage about why we CAN’T do this. I am only interested in discussing whether it will help our breeding and overall harness racing industry, given the decreasing number of foals and breeders we have.

It’s not exactly going to open the floodgates – but it may help the flow.

So let’s tick off what the benefits could be:

For breeders

It allows a potentially greater and more frequent return on investment (the broodmare) over her limited productive years. Therefore it makes a good broodmare a sounder financial investment (even allowing for the cost of embryonic transfer and an additional carrier mare), and gives the breeder more opportunity in a shorter period of time to discover the ability of the mare as a producer.
It gives breeders the chance to spread their risk among a wider range of sires. For example, a breeder may go to a “tried and true” top commercial sire with one foal and a risky but exciting new sire with the other. Or perhaps a compatible but less commercial sire, and keep the foal to race. So newer or well priced sires may benefit from this proposal, and get access to better quality mares.
It allows breeders more chance to get one healthy foal, and perhaps a foal of the sex they prefer. The high risk nature of breeding means that any significant conformation problem or injury, or even getting a filly rather than a colt, can prove a real disappointment to the breeder and impact hugely on the likely sales result or racing outcome. Double the chance does not double the risk – it may not half it, but it can reduce it significantly.
More breeders using embryo transfer will bring down the costs of the process, and therefore cost will be less of a barrier.
It creates a new ‘career option’ for mares who are not commercially bred but have the qualities to make really good carriers and ‘surrogate mums’ to their foals. Some mares may have a top record and carry great genes but are not the best at delivering and raising foals. And some mares may not have top (or desired) breeding, but have the good nature, physique and quality colostrum to add value to a foal. Rather than creating the ‘factory farming’ scenario I was worried about, embryo transfer can create a market (lease or sale) for mares who may otherwise be lost to us – and they could still be available to breed in their own right if required. Some breeders will already have mares more suitable to be surrogate mums than to continue as commercial broodmares.
The limit of two foals per mare per season (and from different sires) means that the market will not be inundated with “doubles”. This is not a cloning exercise. It is likely that numbers will be a very small proportion of total foals initially. So breeders will not be ‘competing against themselves’ and the overall genetic pool will not be unduly affected. Much less affected, indeed, than it is by the tsunami of sperm coming from highly popular sires!

It is easy enough to note ET at registration of foals – an administrative hassle no doubt, but what isn’t. And in any subsequent notation a simple (E) after the name could provide the flag required for those who want to know and for the record the surrogate mare’s name should be recorded.

Who would take up an option like this? Not heaps of breeders, initially. But more as the merits sink in. Probably it would appeal to the biggest breeders, and also the smallest. The latter being people like me, who have a really good mare but rely on her results for any re-investment in breeding, which makes expanding a slow and fragile venture.

Of course some breeders may want to breed a mare twice every second year. The mare is not exhausted from breeding and there are many who believe resting a mare can produce a quality foal.

So for the industry:

It creates a way of increasing foal numbers without necessarily increasing the number of mares bred – it helps stop the downward spiral of breeding numbers.
It creates opportunities for less proven “higher risk” sires to get progeny on the ground, and perhaps from a better class of mares. It may well be a requirement to breed a mare to two DIFFERENT sires in any one season, if embryo transfer is being used, to encourage this to happen.
It creates more services/service fees for the studs and sire owners, both of whom are important for our industry’s success.
It has the potential to raise the quality and (ironically) the diversity of our breed.
It does not impact negatively on the product (race horses) as perceived by the investing punter.

What do you think?

And before you say: “it’ll never fly” just remember that pigs don’t, but bumble bees do!

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding | Tagged Embryo transfer | 3 Comments »

Four radical solutions

April 7, 2013 by b4breeding

I’m not interested in harness racing surviving the current downward trends in stakes, horse numbers, attendances, and betting figures.

I’m interested in it reinventing itself to become an exciting industry to be involved in for the future.

Merely surviving becomes a goal in its own right. And that is when the bell starts tolling.

We can’t afford to hunker down and wait for “things to change” or more money to miraculously appear. We need to be actively pursuing ideas that will position us well for that moment, or indeed help make that moment happen and then capitalise on it.

We hear it said loud and clear: There is no money.

But when ideas start to flow in a positive way, when we really get brainstorming with an open mind, we can create opportunities and energy. That’s what can attract any money that is around.

So here are 4 radical solutions to re-energise the NZ breeding pool (I will look at each one in more detail over the next month of blogging, including how they might be funded.)

Allow breeders to breed 2 foals from an individual mare (no more than 2) per breeding season.
Create meaningful breeders bonuses related to first win or all wins of all NZ-bred horse.
Place a limit of 100 on all NZ available stallions for the next 3 years.
Attach winners’ credits to breeders of fillies (transferable only to current owners)

First up I’ll look at why I have changed my mind about embryonic transfers – and how this idea could grow our pool of broodmares as well as our number of foals.

And if you haven’t read it previously, check out my ideas for making our racing product more interesting and attractive. I rated heat racing and rewards for times as two possibilities – and look what happens, HRV gives the new Great Southern Star series a format that culminates in two heats and a final on the same night, plus rewards fastest placed heat times with additional berths in the final. Yes, it can be done. Many of our current race meetings (even at the highest level) lack the structure of an exciting event, and this is one way to attract punters and attendances. We were all shocked at the demise of the Interdom Trotting Series. The nay-sayers were out in full force as the alternative format came to light. BUT the new format has really added value – congratulations Harness Racing Victoria!

Posted in Harness racing, Standardbred breeding | 1 Comment »

Breeding syndicate update

March 29, 2013 by b4breeding

As many of you know early in the year I proposed a new concept for a breeding syndicate, which might draw new people to breeding or at least retain some disillusioned but keen ones who were battling with costs and poor outcomes. I advertised through my blogsite, in the NZ Harness Weekly and most importantly in Breeding Matters.

The response level was really low, with most coming from Australia and several who were already breeding successfully so not really meeting my criteria. There were a couple of people who were exactly what I was looking for. But I needed at least 15 people to make the concept work.

I have made the call not to proceed with the syndicate.

Thanks to everyone who showed interest – the concept itself got a lot of favourable comments.

I like to think outside the square, and I like to be positive. It was worth floating the idea, regardless of the outcome.

It’s something I’d look at trying again perhaps in the future, with some tweaks and more support from established organisations.

Posted in Standardbred breeding | Leave a Comment »

NZ Yearling sales 2013 – how did newer sires go?

March 2, 2013 by b4breeding

The main difficulty for newer sires is to get enough representation at this level to make an impact. Elsewhere I’ve said a new sire (i.e. unproven one starting a career) really needs to have 10+ progeny across the sales, preferably 20+. See my blog of 13 January on this topic.

So which sires made that mark, and how did they fare?

I’ll look at Changeover (37), Justa Tiger (12), Stonebridge Regal (11), Art Official (10) and Santanna Blue Chip (10).

Changeover’s yearlings

Changeover had 37 yearlings offered and overall a very pleasing result. Talking to Peter O’Rourke (it so happened to be on his last day in his role at Nevele R Stud), he remarked that Changeover has had good books of mares and positive sales results, but now will need to prove himself on the track. Of his sales yearlings, Peter said: “They looked good and breeders were not prepared to give them away.” He said he knew of several passed in lots (there were 7) that had converted to sales soon afterwards.

To my mind, his pricing at $4,000 service fee, his solid pedigree and perhaps most of all the respect trainers had for him as a racehorse makes him attractive. Will the Changeovers be 2yo types? The yearlings I saw were attractive but quite rangey, with good height and a longish bodies. Perhaps more 3yo types, but look how well some of the Mach Threes have done as younger horses. Changeover himself won 2 races as a 2yo and $140,000 and simply got stronger and better with age. So there’s plenty of potential there – fingers crossed for the great horse to make it.

Changeover’s Results:
Australasian (Karaka) Sale – 4 lots offered, all sold. Range $10,000 – $35,000. Average $21,750
Premier (Christchurch) Day 1 – 13 lots offered, 8 sold. Range $13,000 – $23,000. Average $17,250. (Note: One of lots on Day 1 was passed in at $40,000 with a reserve of $49,000, a filly from Sly Shard).
Premier Day 2 – 20 lots offered, 18 sold. Range $2,500 – $23,000. Average $8,422.

Justa Tiger

I blogged about Highview’s Dave and Allan Clarke’s decision to back their sire and put his yearlings into the Premier sale. I still believe it is a courageous move – but it didn’t pay off financially. To be honest, they had a sale from hell. 6 of the 11 lots offered (including the sole lot that made it into Day 1) were passed in, 3 of them without a bid. And of the 5 that sold, 3 of them were for less than $3000. The best sale on the day was Lot 301 called Tiger Minx from a very solid family, second dam having left 7 winners. That colt sold for $10,000.

I spoke to Allan Clarke recently and he said there just wasn’t a middle market at the sales, and those yearlings that didn’t get the attention of the buyers were sold very, very cheaply. However Highview have managed to place most of the ones that didn’t sell to local trainers, and it will be fingers crossed that Justa Tiger has something eyecatching at the races soon. My pick will be the colt Rosewood Tiger, a half brother to the talented Johnny Fox. Allan Clarke says he will be taking a break and looking for a new direction – his own yearling from the very good mare Baptism Of Fire sold at the other extreme, the full brother to Highview Tommy going for $122,000.

Do I think the Justa Tigers were poor types of yearlings? No, but I do think Justa Tiger has an uphill battle because he was one of several tough, honest, talented racehorses getting results in very good races and yet just lacking that ‘wow’ factor to translate into commerical appeal. Also trainers are short of “try it and see” money – because as Allan rightly said, in the current climate there is less funding for trainers to make speculative purchases and then find owners afterwards. It’s about risk. Trainers were buying fewer horses, and by sires that potential owners will know and feel are proven. In that climate, a poorer type by Bettor’s Delight will be preferred over a nice type by Justa Tiger.

Stonebridge Regal

This is a sire that has, for me, flown under the radar as his yearling lots were exclusively in the Premier Sales in Christchurch. 8 of his 11 lots offered were on Day 2 and all but 1 sold, with the top price being $14,000. On Day 1 he had just 3 lots and they all sold, with the top price of $28,000 being paid by Tony Herlihy for a colt out of a Christian Cullen mare.

His foals born in 2011 are really his only significant crop here in New Zealand – 100 served and 82 live foals, with Wai Eyre standing him at around $4000; he had a smaller number of mares his next season and then was shipped to Victoria I believe mid 2012. He’s a sire that would not have been a “name” downunder, as he didn’t really win any of the top races in North American but accumulated “legs” and divisions of them. However his progeny are doing alright over there and some going early. But he may not be available again here regardless. He looked a handsome horse himself, and perhaps his yearlings have sold more on type? Didn’t see them, so cannot really comment.

Stonebridge Regal’s results
Premier Day 1 – 3 lots offered, all sold – $15,000, $18,000, $28,000
Day 2 – 8 lots offered, 7 sold. Range $2,750 – $14,000
Overall average across 3 days – $10,840

Art Official

Art Official had 10 lots offered, from his first crop of just 39 live foals. He had a considerably bigger book of mares in his second season so a decent result from these sales was important in terms of marking him as a truly commercial sire and giving confidence to those breeders who have supported him, because his number slid a bit in his third season last year.

Overall, I think Alabar would have been pleased; it was a strong showing from small numbers.

Art Official’s results:
Australasian sale – 4 lots offered, 2 sold – $22,000 and $11,000.
Premier Day 1 – 2 lots offered, 1 sold – a filly for $23,000, and the passed in lot had a reserve of $20,000.
Day 2 – 4 offered, 3 sold – $12,000, $15,000 and $38,000 (which was the top lot of the day)
Average across the three days = $20,333.

Santanna Blue Chip

The Santanna Blue Chip foals and yearlings that I’ve seen are very athletic, strong and attractive types. It is his second yearling sale here in NZ, but he only 2 lots at the Australasian , 5 in Premier Day 1, and 3 in the Day 2 sale. Mind you, only 2 were passed in, and there were 2 that sold for $20,000 plus. However his average overall was $13,625. This was only the second time his yearlings had been offered at the sale, and it is interesting to see that he served over 114 in his latest season, considerably up on his previous 3 seasons. The two SBC yearlings I saw ‘in the flesh’ at Karaka were eyecatchers, the filly (Lot 153 and a half to Cyamach) made a good $22,000. The colt at that sale was passed in for $9,000 but is being advertised post sale for $10,000 I believe, and I recall it was a nice long barrelled type.

What he needs at this stage is a couple of very nice 2 or 3yos to pop up on the track so that breeders who have kept the faith will feel like his reputation will be tracking up by the time their foals are born. He stood at $4000 for these 2013 yearlings.

Santanna Blue Chip’s results:
Australasian sale – 2 lots offered, 1 sold for $22,000.
Premier Day 1 – 5 lots offered, 4 sold – $8,000, $10,000, $11,000, $25,000
Day 2 – 3 lots offered, all sold – $8,000, $10,000, $15,000

Average across 3 days = $13,625

Other sires? Just too few yearlings to make fair assessment.

(As always, stats are not underpinned by ruthless technically enhanced accuracy, and more likely to be supported by a glass of light wine. Cheers!)

Posted in Harness racing, Standardbred breeding | Tagged Yearling sales | Leave a Comment »

For sale

February 24, 2013 by b4breeding

Advertising on behalf – please contact Ken Mackay direct if you are interested. This looks like quite a nice deal. The mare is 12yo and is Straphanger x Arndon’s Pride. Breeder is Michelle Carson.

3-in-1 package for sale.

Includes the trotting mare Strapless ( striking looking mare who
leaves beautiful foals ) with a beautiful black Angus Hall colt at
foot ( white star and one white sock ) and in foal to The Pres.
$15000+GST for the package.

Contact Ken Mackay at premierpedigrees@gmail.com

Posted in Standardbred breeding | 1 Comment »

NZ yearling sales 2013 – the trotters

February 24, 2013 by b4breeding

60 lots in the catalogue (18 in the Australasian, 18 on Premier Day 1 and 24 on Premier Day 2).

There were 17 trotting sires represented – a huge range – but that meant the numbers for individual sires was often very low, and it is hard to draw conclusions.

There is a much smaller buying market for trotters in New Zealand than for pacers, and the buying bench from Australia was not a significant factor for the trotters, perhaps less so than in previous years? However in the top range, the offerings were good types and sold well.

The passed in rate was high, and although many were close to their Reserve price and may well have sold in subsequent private negotiations, a few were well short of their Reserve.

Averages are really meaningless in this scenario.

Top price was for Lot 33 Angus Hall x Landora’s Special colt who was bought for $127,500.

Look at prices for Angus Hall yearlings and Majestic Son (son of Angus Hall) yearlings:
Angus Hall: $127,500, $42,000, $24,000
Majestic Son: $32,500, $26,000, $20,000, $20,000, $15,000 (plus only one passed in at $12,000)

Pegasus Spur (7 lots) had a very mixed sale, with 4 passed in lots at Karaka in the $6-12,000 range , but a good $50,000 sale on Premier Day 1 for the full sister to Paramount Geegee.

Monarchy (8 lots) got two sales at $26,000 plus one at $15,000 and another passed in at $16,000 but the others were in the $8-10,000 range.

Other trotting sires were represented by 5 or less yearlings across the 3 days of sales, and so it is really hard to pick any trends regarding those sires. The Pres had 5 lots on offer – selling one for $18,000 at the Australasian, plus one passed in at $10,000, and two selling for $10,000, one for $7,000 at Premier Day 2.

Skyvalley also had 5 lots – selling at $20,000 and $4,500, with lots passed in at $24,000, $7,000 and $12,000. The last of these was a filly out of the Last Lord mare Princess Della and therefore a half sister to Kyvalley Mac and Dealornodeal, and the McRaes had a $37,000 Reserve on her which I think was a good move considering her future breeding potential. See my blog on Princess Della.

Sundon had just 4 lots – selling for $18,000, $22,000, $5000 and passed in at $20,000 (Reserve $40,000).

Summary of trotting sales

Australasian – 18 lots offered, 9 sold on the day (3 to Australian buyers)

Premier Day 1 – 18 lots offered, 12 sold (2 to Australia)

Premier Day 2 – 22 lots offered, 18 sold (2 to Australia)

Posted in Standardbred breeding | Tagged Angus Hall, Yearling sales | Leave a Comment »

NZ Premier Yearling Sales Day 1 and 2 – analysis

February 23, 2013 by b4breeding

Very pleased to see Day 1 in Christchurch held up well, but interesting to see some statistical details of key commercial sires. I’m pleased for the vendors’ sake that Bettor’s Delight had such a good sale and superb averages. Art Major fared better in Christchurch, with fewer being passed in and a better average. American Ideal performed consistently well on Day 1 from small numbers but his average was quartered for the same number sold on the difficult Day 2 – but they all sold.

I’ve done these in the same format as for the blog on the Australasian (Karaka) Sale so it’s easier to compare – just scroll down to that blog or click here. But because Day 1 and Day 2 in Christchurch are such different types of sales I have not merged the statistics. The top sires are under-represented on Day 2, and many unproven or middle-of-the-road sires get their day. The top lot on Day 2 was by Art Official.

All the results are available on the PGG Wrightson website and well displayed so people like us can sort according to columns.

In my next blog I will have look at trotters overall, and the blog after that will touch on some of the newer sires at the sales and hopefully some comments from Nevele R on Changeover’s debut, Highview Standardbreds on Justa Tiger, and Alabar on some of their newer sires).

It was remiss of me not to include Christian Cullen in my initial analysis of the Australasian sale’s pacing sires, so I will add him in retrospectively in the earlier blog.

Don’t take my figures as gospel, I’m a plodder when it comes to numbers, but hopefully they are 97.748% accurate (lol)

Day 1

Bettor’s Delight

44 lots offered.

39 sold (88%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $1,588,500
Price range $3,000-$122,000
Average price: $40,730
Average price without top lot: $34,902
Number of lots <$20,000 = 6 (15% of his lots sold by auction)

Art Major

23 lots offered.

20 sold (86%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $810,500
Price range $3,000-$122,000
Average price: $40,525
Average price minus lots $100,000+): $33,710
Number of lots <$20,000 = 6 (30% of lots sold by auction)

American Ideal

8 lots offered.

6 sold (75%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $170,000
Price range: $15,000-$52,000
Average price: $28,416
Number of lots <$20,000 = 2 (33% of lots sold by auction)

Mach Three

7 lots offered

6 sold (86%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $187,000
Price range: $11,000-$55,000
Average price: $31,166
Number of lots <$20,000 = 2 (33%)

Christian Cullen

17 lots offered

15 sold (88%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $492,500
Price range: $9,000-$60,000 (but one passed in for $97,500 with reserve of $100,000)
Average price: $32,833
Number of lots <$20,000 = 4 (26%)

Day 2

Bettor’s Delight

5 offered
3 sold ($13,000-$20,000)
Average: $16,333

Art Major

1 offered, passed in.

American Ideal

6 offered
6 sold
Average: $7,416

Mach Three

4 offered
4 sold
Average: $10,125

Christian Cullen

3 offered
1 sold for $21,000

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Virtual yearling stables for 2013

February 21, 2013 by b4breeding

This year I’m going head-to-head with Ken Mackay (from Premier Pedigrees) and his daughter Alana who is, Ken says, uncanny at picking these things!

So for those who want to join in, this year’s rules are 3 colts and 3 fillies from the Australasian yearling sale only. We make selections now, and then follow everyone’s picks on a season by season basis on this blogsite and the winner gets….well, just the enjoyment and prestige of picking something that actually gets to the races!!

Previous virtual stables are still running, and I will do an update on all of them over the next month.

Come on, join in – Just add your stable by clicking on “Comment” at the bottom of the blog. But please stick to the criteria of 3 colts and 3 fillies only from the Australasian sale at Karaka.

The head-to-head has been based on pedigree and (for Ken and myself anyway) on observing the yearlings at the sales. But you can pick on any criteria you want, helps if you explain briefly your approach.

All of us selected Lot 173 colt – I’ve opted to go for something different in my picks just to broaden the range, but will be following him with interest.
Overall, I was attracted to types with a bit of scope, perhaps more 3yo types.

Bee’s selections

Lot 133 Classic Bromac – look at that fantastic roman nose!

Colts:
Lot 15 Kurahaupo King (Live Or Die x Kurahaupo Charm)
A 2nd December foal but already well put together, athletic, from a solid family.

Lot 133 Classic Bromac (Mach Three x Classic Blue Jeans)
Tall type, plenty of scope, not necessarily early. Lovely roman nose. Great family and first one by Mach Three.

Lot 134 Hard N Fast (Christian Cullen x Black and Royal)
CC colt out of an Elsu mare – I did a blog on her first foal. Lovely type.

Fillies:
Lot 10 Comekissmequick (Art Major x Inter Shape)
A well proportioned filly with scope, perhaps not an early type but really liked her. And from a “classy” family.

Lot 122 Classical Art (Mach Three x Art Lover)
A big, tall filly.

Santanna Jewel

Lot 153 Santanna Jewel (Santanna Blue Chip x Cyathea)
Half sister to Cyamach, and I’m impressed by the physical type of the Santanna Blue Chip yearlings I saw this and last year. Lovely body, strong frame.

Ken Mackay’s selections
Colts:
Lot 65 Tenacious Bromac (Bettor’s Delight x Tandias Courage)
Lot 145 Royal Loyal (Bettor’s Delight x Braeside Lady)
Lot 173 Lightning Flight (Mach Three – Flight Of Fantasy)

Fillies:
Lot 107 Heart Stealer (Bettor’s Deight x Fight Fire With Fire)
Lot 109 Hartofdixie (American Ideal x Splendid Deal)
Lot 178 Bettor Be Supreme (Bettor’s Delight x Galleons Supreme)

Lot 173 Lightning Flight with Robert Mitchell from preparers Wairau Farm

Alana Mackay’s selections

Colts:
Lot 84 De Tiger (Mach Three – Tigers Delight)
Lot 173 Lightning Flight (Mach Three – Flight Of Fantasy)
Lot 105 A Good Deal (American Ideal – Welcome Star)

Fillies:
Lot 128 Gotta Go Ice Lady (Gotta Go Cullect – Armbro Ice)
Lot 94 Trixie Bromac (Mach Three – Trapiche)
Lot 41 Verde Lima (Bettor’s Delight – Oaxaca Lass)

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