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Why Changeover deserves respect as a sire

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged on February 24, 2015| Leave a Comment »

First some information for those blog readers who are not from New Zealand or Australia: Changeover is a NZ bred horse (In The Pocket x Chaangerr) who was an outstanding racehorse winning from 2yo through to 6yo at the highest level and showing all the speed, courage and stamina you could wish for. He ended his racing career with the statistics of 66 starts for 29 wins and $2.4 million in the bank. And as an entire, he retired to stud.

Changeover, pacing sire

Changeover, pacing sire

He has been well received by New Zealand and by many Australian breeders. In New Zealand he served 226 mares in his first year (for a slightly disappointing 160 live foals born in 2011), 137  in his second year for 99 live foals in 2012, 113 in his third year for 89 live foals in 2013, and 142 for 100 live foals born in 2014  – and it seems he has had about the same number of mares served in the last season. He has had over 100 Australian bred foals as well.

How is he turning out?

In my view, he is already proving himself as one of those horses who will translate the qualities they had on the track into the breeding barn with a very, very solid performance as a sire to date, from only a few crops (oldest are 3yos).

His NZ bred progeny (raced here or in Australia) are looking good (see list of winners below).

Currently his 3yos (142 registered) have 80 qualifiers, 46 starters and 25 winners (interestingly 4 from Presidential Ball mares and 5 from Live Or Die mares). Of his 88 registered 2yos, 7 have qualified so far this season and 1 is a winner.

We know that Changeover was a super younger horse, but a scopey type who got better and better as he matured. So the signs for these youngsters is positive. It is a good start, and more will come from each crop as they develop.

Which is why I wonder how much it takes for our great home-bred sires to make a really important in-road into the commercial end of the market, especially at yearling sales time. We take a huge discount for “local” and then for “may need time” types.

Changeover (and others) cannot be pidgeon-holed in such a simplistic fashion – he was a versatile racehorse, and appears to be a versatile sire.

However once again this year there were some real Changeover bargains to be had at the yearling sales. And unfortunately “bargain” is another way of saying the vendor got below cost return. Which is not great for any industry that wants to create a viable product stream. But more on that in a blog soon…

The average price of Changeover yearlings sold at the two New Zealand yearling sales – (the Australasian (Karaka) and Premier (Christchurch) – this year was just over $12,000, with 3 not sold and 2 withdrawn.

But check out how his statistics look when you examine his winners to date. There is a sense of quality about their wins and their ratios of starts to placings. While obviously not all his progeny will turn out to be winners, the odds are looking good for Changeover as a solid punt for buyers rather than an outside bet. However his prices are yet to reflect that.

Here is a current (24 February 2015) snapshot of his NZ bred winners (raced here or in Australia):

Remember that these are just starting out on their racing careers…

  • Beaudienne Bill 19 starts, 6 wins, 2 places $34,485
  • Big Spending Telf 7 starts, 4 wins, 2 places $23,598
  • Cambio 1 start, 1 win $13,377
  • Carisma 9 starts, 2 wins, 1 place $11,686
  • Change The Rulz 12 starts, 2 wins, 4 places $13,282
  • Controversial 12 starts, 3 wins, 1 place $20,145
  • Cool Changes 2 starts, 1 win $6652
  • Envious 1 start, 1 win $3060
  • Hvar 5 starts, 1 win, 1 place $4475
  • Itsallovernow 10 starts, 1 win, 1 place $7762
  • Lennox 11 starts, 5 wins, 3 places $26,041
  • Lola Jackson 2 starts, 1 win, 1 place $5675
  • Midnight Rider 10 starts, 1 win $7097
  • Nuala 3 starts, 3 wins $41,735
  • Onedin Onyx 7 starts, 2 wins, 1 place $12,408
  • Oneover 16 starts, 3 wins, 7 places $39,423
  • Prince Of pops 16 starts, 4 wins, 5 places $40,317
  • Risk 4 starts, 1 win $3782
  • Spare Change 8 starts, 1 win, 4 places $6824
  • Sudden Change 10 starts, 2 wins, 4 places $10,621
  • Spendthelot 6 starts, 1 win $6793
  • The Charging Moa 5 starts, 1 win $3683
  • Webb Ellis 11 starts, 2 wins, 3 places $13,425
  • Whitershadeofpale 7 starts, 4 wins, 1 place $22,775

 

Check out my blog from last year about Changeover at the sales

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How did they fare at the yearling sales? Part 1 – Changeover

Posted in Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged , on March 18, 2014| 2 Comments »

I’m taking a look at some of the newer sires, and how they performed in terms of prices gained at the yearling sales.

I’m using averages this time, but where a single result skews the overall range, I will also show the average without the top price.

Overall, the sales show again how hard it is for breeders to take a punt on new sires, no matter how good their reputation – and that’s because the buying market stands back from them. And yet if we don’t support newer sires at the commercial end of our industry, we are lacking the progressive attitude that our industry badly needs.

I’ve blogged before about this (New sires trying to gain traction, 30 January 2013) and I will follow several of the same sires this time but focusing on their sales results.

Let’s start with Changeover. When I blogged about him in January he had 11 qualifiers. That has increased to 19 and it seems like his name is popping up regularly in the results of workouts and trials, and increasingly in races. He’s had 9 starters and just the 1 winner so far. But these are good statistics from a 2yo crop of just 49 registered foals, and you hear many good reports from trainers and some of the horses that are racing look like they will win before long – Prince Of Pops, Bold Ruler and Controversial are three that come to mind.

So I was expecting buyers to be interested in his yearlings at the sales. Unfortunately there was only one offered at Karaka (Australasian), and that went for just $10,000. There were 21 in the Christchurch (Premier) catalogue, and after 2 withdrawals 19 were offered but only 13 sold on the day and 6 were passed in on vendor’s bid (but none of them had a reserve higher than $12,000). The average price for Changeover yearlings over both sales was $15,577, and the median was $12,000. If you factor in the number not making their reserve, I think his reception was weaker than the sire deserves on his own merits and breeding, and on what we’ve heard about and seen of his foals so far.

His service fee has consistently been $4000 +gst, which puts him in the realistic middle range. That helps breeders, particularly those who are doing the raising and preparation themselves, to at least cover their costs. I would guess about half of them did, and half of them didn’t. But the number passed in would alter that result unfavourably, as it is likely that sales arranged soon after the auction would be for no more than the reserve.

On type, I really liked a lot of them. Most were good sized attractive types, quite long in the barrel and “scopey”. Bold, lovely heads, plenty of leg. His results in terms of qualifiers is showing he can turn out horses with enough natural ability, good gait and willing temperament to make a competitive 2yo. And as strength develops, they will become really nice 3yos.

Changeover’s results were more solid than some of the other newer sires, but I wonder how many commercial breeders will be targeting him for yearling sale foals next year? I hope some do, and  hope the sire’s statistics on the racetrack make him a sought after product. This is a sire that owners who want good potential racehorses for a reasonable price should snap up. And a “reasonable price” should be averaging over $20,000 rather than $15,000.

If part of the role of yearling sales is to showcase a sire’s progeny, then I put a tick in Changeover’s box. Very nice types.

A Changeover yearling colt from Sly Shard

Lot 48 Christchurch, Linton Shard, a yearling colt by Changeover out of Sly Shard, which makes him a half to Smiling Shard and Pemberton Shard. Bought by Cran Dalgety for $40,000. A very good looking colt.

A Changeover yearling filly

Lot 63, Arma Night, a Changeover yearling filly from Arma Phoenix (family of Armalight), passed in on a vendor’s bid of $6,000 (res $12,000) at the Christchurch sale.

A Changeover yearling colt

Lot 64, Jakarta, a yearling colt by Changeover from the 4-win Live Or die mare Tellalie. Sold for $12,000 to Neil Darlington, Australia.

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New sires trying to gain traction

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged , , , , , on January 30, 2014| 2 Comments »

It was hard enough competing as a racehorse. Now they are competing in an even more high risk game – being a sire.

You have to be successful, have all the right connections and be very good looking, preferably good natured in the breeding barn, highly fertile and with the ability to stamp your kids with the only your best qualities and none of your poorer ones. Ideally you should leave precocious 2yos who not only perform brilliantly but are sound enough to continue their winning way as 3yos and later become all aged champions.

As our New Zealand Tui beer adverts say, “Yeah, right.” Which translated means: Really?? Not!

We ask a lot. And some horses – remarkably – deliver.

To bring ourselves down to earth, I’ve taken a look at six sires who came on to the New Zealand scene recently, and how their progeny are performing so far – Santanna Blue Chip (see blog about his return to the racetrack but also my blog about his NZ foals), Gotta Go Cullect, Gotta Go Cullen, Ohoka Arizona and then Changeover, Shadow Play and Art Official (whose oldest race crops are only 2yos).

American Ideal

American Ideal at Woodlands Stud. (Photo Bee Pears)

And then I’ve added into the mix American Ideal, whose oldest crop is 5yos, as a bench marker, a sire that came with high recommendations but been given time to find his feet, and who has not to date been an outstanding sire of 2yos in New Zealand but is building a more secure reputation for quality and percentages.

I think we are so quick to judge new sires – and so few can deliver the multiple 2yo standouts that we desire as proof of their ability. So this blog isn’t comparing these sires in a negative way at all. I have a lot of admiration for each of them, and I have chosen a sample which I believe have potential to establish themselves.

Remember that we are only half way through our racing season and with 2yos and 3yos more are qualifying, racing, winning every week – so this is a snapshot in time. Out of date probably before I even publish it!

My point is how hard it is for a new sire to get traction – and it reflects the other side of the coin from the old sires I wrote about last time who got established, contributed hugely and are still gaining our respect, getting winners and even producing new foals, long after they have passed on.

The many reasons for early success can relate to

  • the types of mares a sire gets (ironically a very speedy sire may end up getting slower/heavier types of mare looking for an injection of speed)
  • the type of breeder/owner who supports the sire (smaller breeder/owners using less pricey sires may not feel under as much pressure to try their progeny as 2yos compared to the more commercial trainers/owners with horses bought at the yearling sales, for example), and the early development of the foal may well be managed differently even at the weanling/yearling stage
  • a sire may stamp his progeny with some precocious factors – great natural gait or the conformation, growth pattern and mental maturity that can help a horse to go early rather than needing time to grow
  • the sheer weight of numbers of foals or the lack of them.

I’ve added the breeding of these sires, as several of them are New Zealand breds and therefore will not be very familiar to some overseas readers of my blog – but these are racehorses and family lines that come with a heap of credentials “down under” and are forging a great revival in locally bred sires at the moment.  Of course they will need to sort themselves out over the next few years, but it is an extremely positive sign for New Zealand breeding. A mix of top quality sires and racehorses from overseas, plus top quality sires from our own particular breeding stock. (I’ve listed a couple of links at the bottom of this blog for those who want to know more about where the new breed of New Zealand standardbred pacing sires are coming from).

Gotta Go Cullect at Alabar

Gotta Go Cullect at Alabar

Gotta Go Cullect – Christian Cullen x Elect To Live (Live Or Die)

  • Live foals 2010 (currently 3yos) 125
  • 2011 (currently 2yos) 96
  • Qualifiers to date (approx mid season) 32 (including 4 x this season’s 2yos)
  • Starters 22
  • Winners 8

Gotta Go Cullen – Christian Cullen x Sparkling Burgundy (Butler BG)

  • Live foals 2010 (currently 3yos) 29
  • 2011 (currently 2yos) 38
  • Qualifiers to date  9 (including 2 x this season’s 2yos)
  • Starters 3
  • Winners 0

Ohoka Arizona – In The Pocket x Millwood Krystal (Falcon Seelster)

  • Live foals 2010 (currently 3yos) 84
  • Live foals 2011 (currently 2yos) 25
  • Qualifiers to date   21
  • Starters 12
  • Winners 5

Santanna Blue Chip

Santanna Blue Chip at Alabar (Photo by Bee Pears)

  • Live foals 2010 (currently 3yos) 65
  • Live foals 2011 (currently 2yos) 52
  • Qualifiers to date  24 (including 3 x this season’s 2yos)
  • Starters 13
  • Winners  4

2yo crop only:

Changeover – In The Pocket x Chaangerr (Vance Hanover)

  • Live foals 2011 (currently 2yos) 160
  • Qualifiers to date   11
  • Starters 1
  • Winners 0
Art Official at Alabar

Art Official at Alabar (Photo Bee Pears)

Art Official (Art Major x Naughty Shady Lady (Falcon Seelster)

  • Live foals 2011 (currently 2yos) 49
  • Qualifiers to date 0
  • Starters 0
  • Winners 0

Shadow Play (The Pandersosa x Matts Filly (Matts Scooter)

  • Live foals 2011 (currently 2yos) 19
  • Qualifiers to date   2
  • Starters 0
  • Winners 0

American Ideal – Western Ideal x Lifetime Success (Matts Scooter)

American Ideal has foals racing who are also 4yos and 5yos, but for this exercise I’m just focusing on his current 2yo and 3yo crops.

  • Live foals 2010 (currently 3yos) 59
  • Live foals 2011 (currently 2yos) 80
  • Current qualifiers who are 2yo and 3yo   29 (including 2 x this season’s 2yos)
  • Current starters who are 2yos or 3yos   21 (all 3yos)
  • Winners  16

On type of the sire, I would’ve expected Gotta Go Cullect to have had more foals qualifing st 2yos – he was an early runner himself and is a medium sized, athletic type. Whereas I’m interested that Changeover has had a few 2yos showing up and several trainers are commenting on the natural gait and willingness of his progeny. His yearlings looked to me to be more scopey, even rangey types that might need time, and Changeover the racehorse was certainly one that just got better and better. So he is leaving some qualities (including “gait speed”, a great asset)  that will definitely help him get traction as a sire. Those are two local sires who certainly have had the numbers on the ground and will be looking for some flagship progeny over the next 12 months. Ohoka Arizona was more of a speedy 2yo type himself and is doing okay as a sire to date, but will need to have his initial big crop really step up now as 3yos to keep attracting the mares. Shadow Play will be helped by his overseas success – and he got a much better book this year in ew Zealand. Art Official has a much larger crop of yearlings on the ground than his current 2yos, and that will give him a chance to hang his hat here. He is another that will be helped by overseas results.

The newer sires have a way to go, and it will be interesting to see what sort of credits and reputation they will have built by the end of the current season.

I’ll keep an eye on it.

The stats are all via HRNZ’s Info Horse database, but the opinions are my own.
For more information about the development of New Zealand siring lineups over recent years try this previous articles of mine (in the Articles tab at the top of the blog):

https://b4breeding.com/articles/nz-bred-sires/

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Lot 271 Franco Texas – very current Nevele R

Posted in Standardbred breeding, tagged , , , , on January 12, 2013| Leave a Comment »

Here’s an interesting lot on Premier Day 2. He’s a colt by Changeover, with McArdle as his damsire and Badlands Hanover as his grandamsire, all of which are Nevele R stallions, and very current ones too.

That makes him, by my flick through the catalogue, the only pacer to have a grandamsire who is in the same catalogue as a sire. (No, have now checked and Falcon Seelster and Sundon both meet the same criteria, although Falson Seelster died some years ago and is only available via frozen semen. But Badlands is by far the most “recent” of these sires, with his first crop here born 2001 compared to Sundon’s in 1993).

But it is exceptionally quick generation turnover mainly due to the recent dams in this family not having many foals, and the filly foals they did have were only lightly tried or unraced before heading to the breeding barn.

The 4th dam is completely NOT like that. Tempest Tiger (born 1975)was a good racemare with 7 wins under her girth strap and a 1.58.5 mark to boot. She won the NZ Messenger Championship for 4yos in 1979 for owner PK Ryder with Jack Smolenski in the bike. And then she had group winning sons Franco Tiger and OK Tiger and several other very competitive horses, and as a result bagged the 1995-96 Broodmare of the Year award. That was a record of 12 foals, 9 to race and 9 winners. She was owned by Franco Breeding Ltd from 1990, and Spreydon Lodge from 1993, but became very hard to get into foal as she got older and died in 2004.

This is her great-grand-daughter’s first foal. Franco Texas is quite an outcross – has few close doubleups – just a 5x5x6x7x7 reference to Meadow Skipper and 3×5 to Direct Scooter, and many of those are running through siring lines.

However there’s a nice coincidence that Tempest Tiger is a daughter of the less well known sire Tiger Wave (a rare sire son of Shadow Wave), and I talked about Tiger Wave in more detail in a previous blog re Justa Tiger’s progeny at these sales.  His dam Tigerish was a mare by Tiger Wave.  Interesting that Tiger Wave has left two mares who have gone on to create such strong families.

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