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Statistics tell one story, prices another – Jereme’s Jet

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged , , on April 11, 2014| 4 Comments »

Jereme’s Jet is an example of a sire with good credentials and now some very solid performance statistics, who could not get a foothold as a commercial shuttling sire. His last season here was 2012, and he’s not likely to be back.

The reasons are mixed, and he is one of many sires who have found the challenges of shuttling too difficult. I will have a look at those challenges of shuttling in my next blog.

Jereme's Jet 2011 NZ

Jereme’s Jet at the NZ Alabar 2011 stallion parade – bookends of a big shoulder and a big bum.

Jereme’s Jet stood for 4 seasons in New Zealand for a $6,000 service fee. He is a lovely strong looking individual, with a big shoulder and bum – bookends – on a 15.2hh body, so he is compact but looked the type of sire that could produce speedy earlier types. I’ve seen him personally a couple of times at Alabar stallion parades.

His credentials are very good. His main selling point is his own speed – consistently fast – and he raced from 2yo to 4yo which gives more confidence of durability, toughness. So on type – very fast, compact, not big but built like a brick sh**house as we say – Alabar and the sire’s owners must have been hoping he would eventually fit the same siring mould as Bettor’s Delight.

On the so-so side of the equation, Jereme’s Jet’s maternal family is not that strong and certainly not well known here. His dam was an outstanding racehorse with Jereme’s Jet and his full brother Ohubetterbelieveit by far the best of her progeny to date. Back further, there is a solid family but nothing that really stands out.

Also Jereme’s Jet is a son of Western Hanover and, apart from Badlands Hanover who has build a very fine reputation here over 14 years, New Zealand has had little experience of the Western Hanover line, and some of those who have ventured here have not been successful at all (Red River Hanover, P Forty Seven). His best son Western Ideal has been available only as frozen semen and often at a high price, so has only had a handful of “boutique” foals here (from 15 foals now aged 2 and 3, he has had 5 starters for 3 winners). However Western Ideal’s son American Ideal is gaining in popularity each year and had the backing of the Woodlands Stud broodmare band to help him in those first awkward years when he got only around 70 or 80 mares – now he is regularly getting well over 100. Same for Western Ideal son Rocknroll Hanover who, after a very slow start (again due to frozen semen and high service fee) is now getting around 50 mares, still with frozen semen but at half the original asking price.

So overall, New Zealand has been more successful hunting ground for sires from the Artsplace line rather than sons of Western Hanover, and Western Ideal’s own sons are the main flag carriers of the Western Hanover line.

What’s interesting about Jereme’s Jet is that he hasn’t left many 2yo speedy types at all, if any. But his statistics get a lot better as his foals develop. In fact, they are impressive for a sire that had an average of less than $10,000 across both New Zealand yearling sales this year. At the Australasian sale (Karaka) he had just 5 yearlings for sale, with 3 selling (average $$5,500) and 2 passed in on vendor’s bid. One of those was Peter Fraser’s colt Lot 89 Campora which was bought back at $17,500 – it’s a full brother to Vapour who is now doing well in Australia.  At the Premier sale (Christchurch) there were 9 lots on offer. 6 sold (average $10,833) and 3 were passed in on vendor’s bid.

Let’s review Jereme’s Jet siring stats to date: (remembering the season is not over yet)

His current 2yos   43 live foals   3 starters (7%)   1 winner (2%)
His current 3yos   55 live foals   31 qualifiers (56%)  20 starters (36%)  12 winners (21%)
His current 4yos   87 live foals   54 qualifiers (62%)   45 starters (51%)  33 winners (37%)

Just to put this in context, here are the equivalent stats for American Ideal’s current 4yos born in New Zealand in 2009:
His current 4yos    61 live foals   32 qualifiers (52%)  25 starters (40%)  18 winners (29%)

And yet American Ideal has been given the time to establish his reputation, solidly. His annual numbers of mares is now well over 100. Whereas Jereme’s Jet is gone. And like Jereme’s Jet, American Ideal foals on type were perhaps expected to go earlier than they do. In reality, both sires are leaving foals that get better and stronger with time.

Just to put both those sires in perspective, Bettor’s Delight currently has 52% of his 2009 crop as winners. That shows both how remarkable he is as a sire, but also the increased opportunities for a sire with big books and quality mares. It is a hard market to crack.

Jereme's Jet filly

Lot 117 Karaka yearling sale 2014, the Jereme’s Jet filly sold to Adam Wilkinson for just $10,000

In terms of yearling sale prices, Jereme’s Jet was reasonable well received with his first crop at the 2011 sales, with several selling in the $15,000 to $40,000 range. The following couple of years show a slide so common in the first few years as sales buyers wait to see how the yearlings look, how the 2yos perform. So few buyers wait to see how the 4yos turn out. Those that do were rewarded at the yearling sales this year with some very astute buys of some very good looking Jereme’s Jet yearlings. The photo in this blog shows Adam Wilkinson’s purchase for just $10,000 at the Karaka sale – from a Soky’s Atom mare, the same cross as Whisper Jet ($60,000 from 15 starts, 4 wins to date).

So Jereme’s Jet moved very quickly into the breed-to-race-and-sell category, rather than a commercial “sales-type” sire. That probably suits the type of horse he is leaving. However his service fee couldn’t reflect that change without the owners obviously struggling to break even on the shuttle arrangement. His departure is a no-brainer in business terms, and judging by the relatively low fertility (hovering under 70% after his first season here) maybe the horse didn’t thrive on the demands of shuttling.

Helena Jet is, of course, his outstanding New Zealand representative today and embodies the qualities of the sire – she’s attractive, has character, and is strong – and yes, she is getting faster as she gets older.

It’s the consistency of his starters that I like. When I look through the race form book, I’m always interested to see the Jereme’s Jets. They usually don’t have a lot of starts but the formline reads well. For a small bettor like me, they are a great bet. I’ll do a squizz back sometime in the future and see how his stats are tracking when his youngest foals have reached the end of their 4yo season, here and in Australia.

So this is a tip o’ the hat to a sire that I really like and seriously considered.

Jereme’s Jet now stands at Ivy Lane Farm in Indiana at US$3000.

 

 

 

 

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How did they fare at the yearling sales – Part 5 The absentee sires

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged , , , on April 6, 2014| 1 Comment »

It is hard enough to breed for yearling sales, and even harder when the time gap between decision making and bid is about 2.5 years apart – a timespan when trends change, reputations are made or lost, freak 2yos appear or not, and stakes can encourage or totally turn off buyers.

Add into that volatile mix the situation where the sire of the horse you breed suddenly vanishes from the scene.

Oh oh.

The sires that have been affected by change of situation recently include three from Alabar – Jereme’s Jet, Santanna Blue Chip  and Real Desire – and Shark Gesture, Stonebridge Regal, Rob Roy Mattgregor, Four Starzzz Shark.

The reasons for their absence is varied but the affect on the breeder of having a sire not currently available when the yearling is being sold – well, that’s a major hurdle.

Alabar in particular committed to advertising support this time around, and that was a very helpful gesture. The fact remains: absence doesn’t make the heart grow fonder. It makes horses less desirable because at a very basic level there is a perception that “he didn’t work out as a sire here”.

The best result for the vendor then depends on individual outstanding types and really strong families. In my own case, I got a stunning price for my Real Desire colt, far and away beyond what other very nice Real Desires I saw at Karaka and Christchurch got. He was a beautiful type of yearling, but not so incredibly far ahead of some others by the same sire – I was really impressed by ones like Goforjack from the very good mare Laurent Perrier, for example, but he struggled to get a bid at $14,000.

The averages for Real Desire yearlings were skewed by the $84,000 for one sale, so better to look at each sale separately. At Karaka 4 sold and 3 were bought back, for an average sale price of $26,500, but if you take out the top lot, the average was just $7,333. At Christchurch he had 15 yearlings sold and 9 bought back, for an average of $14,033.  All the Karaka lots that were bought back or passed in without a bid were fillies, and the fillies at Christchurch also struggled to get decent bids.

Look at the length of  body in Real Desire’s progeny; it’s something Real Desire often stamps, along with legs that reach. His record is good, from a career that means there is a lack of young racing stock at the moment. He had 152 live foals in 2008, was absent the next year, 51 live foals in 2010, 37 in 2011, and these yearlings were from his biggest crop of 159 live foals in 2012, when the performance of his earlier foals encouraged breeders to go again. He was missing again last year and I doubt he will be back unless these yearlings jump out of their skins.

I asked around quite a few buyers, trainers and breeders what it was about Real Desires that put people off, what the problem was. And the answer was never specific – often along the lines of “I don’t see anything wrong with them myself but a lot of people don’t like them.”  Nothing tangible. In fact a lot of them spoke favourable about specific Real Desires they knew or had trained.

On type, I really liked what I saw of the Shark Gestures. They look bigger, bolder types that could need time, but wow they looked strong and handsome. What a horse he was, from a juvenile to older racehorse! And a strong pedigree. Now he is based in Ohio, but the one year he was available via Wai Eyre Farm was an opportunity missed by many, and I believe those breeders who took that opportunity were hard done by at the yearling sales. I will follow them with interest.

Jereme’s Jet is another matter, and I will delve into that over the next month. Like many (when I saw his big bum and strong but more compact body) I thought he might be leaving those early sprinty types. He’s not really, but his statistics are showing something really interesting. More on that later. Suffice to say, there were several Jereme’s Jets who really caught my eye and some astute buyers got them cheap.

I have also covered Santanna Blue Chip previously so won’t go over that ground except to say that his 5 yearlings for sale across both North Island and South Island yearling sales went for $3000-$11,000, including one passed in on vendor’s bid. And yet he is a sire that stamps an attractive athleticism on his foals, but perhaps not the strong bold look some buyers are wanting.

Below are some photos of the yearlings by Real Desire and by Shark Gesture, who was here one minute, gone the next.

In all cases, I did not inspect the yearlings so there may have been reasons why the prices were so low, other than the commercial appeal of the sire himself – but many of these sires struggled to attract competitive buying interest in the ring, in spite of looking the part.

I think that is a huge shame, the often the vendor is not getting a price the individual yearling deserves. And if that individual is a filly, of course that immediately reduces the value as the sire’s ability to produce good race fillies is one big question mark. Having said that, it is interesting to see the prices paid for bold types, like a couple of the Shark Gesture fillies, held up relatively well.

Photos below of some Real Desire, Shark Gesture and Santanna Blue Chip yearlings.

Some of the  Real Desire yearlings at the 2014 sales:

LOT 111 Real Desire colt from the wonderful Twice As Hot/Twice As Good family - he was bought back as a vendor bid for just $11,000 after not meeting the reserve.

LOT 111 Christchurch, Real Desire colt from the wonderful Twice As Hot/Twice As Good family – he was bought back as a vendor bid for just $11,000 after not meeting the reserve.

Lot 123 a Real Desire colt from All My Art, the dam of Ohoka Nevada, et al. He was bought for $6000.

Lot 123, Christchurch, a Real Desire colt from All My Art, the dam of Ohoka Nevada, et al. He was bought for $6000.

Lot 313 Goforjack Real Desire colt from the lovely broodmare Laurent Perrier, the dam of the great Lancome. He was bought for just $14,000.

Lot 313 Christchurch, Goforjack Real Desire colt from the lovely broodmare Laurent Perrier, the dam of the great Lancome. He was bought for just $14,000.

Some of the Shark Gestures:

Shark Gesture yearling colt

Lot 99 Christchurch, Shark Gesture colt bought for $8000

Shark Gesture yearling filly

Lot 191 Christchurch, Shark Gesture filly from Holmes Hanover mare Electrify, dam of Lochinvar, was sold for just $3000.

Lot 102 Christchurch, a lovely Shark Gesture filly from an In the Pocket mare, sold for $11,500

Lot 102 Christchurch, a lovely Shark Gesture filly from an In the Pocket mare, sold for $11,500

One of the Santanna Blue Chip yearlings:

Santanna Blue Chip filly yearling

Lot 95 at Karaka,  Santanna Blue Chip filly from Erinyes bought back at $6000

Santanna Blue Chip yearling colt

Lot 109 Christchurch, Santanna Blue Chip colt from Dream Bel family

 

 

 

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How did they fare at the yearling sales – Part 4 Gotta Go Cullect

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged , on April 5, 2014| Leave a Comment »

Gotta Go Cullect had just 4 yearlings at the sales this year, selling for $13,000, $12,000, $7,500 and one passed in on a vendor’s bid of $5000 with a reserve of $10,000. That’s an average of lots sold of just over $10,000, and overall not a bad result compared to some of the other newer sires. His service fee affordability probably meant those who sold yearlings were close to breaking even, and expectations would have been realistic I think.

Like Art Official he stands at Alabar in the North Island but he had no representatives at the North Island yearling sale at Karaka. That is definitely a reflection on how he is viewed commercially by top end breeders and buyers who are the core of the Karaka sale.

The only photo I got on the day is this one of Lot 62, a nice strong type of colt from a Safely Kept mare who got the top price of $13,000. He’s being led around by Ken Spicer who is quite a tall, solid bloke, so you can get an impression he’s a bigger, bolder type of yearling and quite appealing to buyers. See his promotional photo at end of the blog.

Below the photo I do a quick summary of Gotta Go Cullect’s siring career to date. I think he’s filling a great niche in the breed-to-race market, but unless his 3yos really put the foot down on the accelerator, I can’t see many more of his yearlings turning up at the yearling sales. The recent performing families that get good prices would be taking a commercial risk to go to a sire that is not really priced for top-end sales. For example, Lot 49, the only filly, was an attractive yearling and is also the half sister to Lochaburn, the 3yo colt by Christian Cullen who has so far chalked up 8 wins from 12 starts. The mare, Suzy’s Delight is back in foal to Christian Cullen now, which makes a lot of sense commercially for breeder Mike Stratford.

Lot 62 Gotta go Cullect colt by Safely Kept mare

Lot 62 Gotta go Cullect colt by Safely Kept mare

Of the sons of our great sire Christian Cullen who stand at stud, Gotta Go Cullect has received the most support from breeders so far. He has had four good books of mares and now has just over 220 live foals at age 2 or 3, i.e. racing age.

As I’ve mentioned before in my blog late January (New sires trying to gain traction) not many of his foals to date seem to be racing or winning as 2yos; they seem to need a bit more time to develop than you might have expected from a sire whose own sire and dam were both precocious, tough youngsters.

Gotta Go Cullect’s stats are now 45 qualifiers and 11 winners (and I see there is some action over in Australia with some of his Australian born progeny, but I’m not going to delve into detail on that at this stage). As a sire, Gotta Go Cullect is hovering around 20% qualifiers to live foals, and 5% winners to live foals to date (bearing in mind that his oldest are only 3).

Breaking his stats down a bit more:

  • He has 78 registered foals born in NZ who are currently 2yos. Of those,  there are 6 starters (7.6%), no winners.
  • He has 108 registered foals born in NZ who are currently 3yos. Of those 25 are starters (23%), 11 are winners (10.8%).

Of course the season has not finished yet and these figures will change over the next 4 months. But there is a bit of a trend which, as I say, is indicating that in spite of his own breeding and own track performance (4 wins from just 5 starts as a 2yo), Gotta go Cullect is not showing up as a sire of precocious horses. Well, he’s like most sires in that way. And like most sires trying to make their mark, he will need to counter that by coming up with half a dozen eye catching 3yos who show up at premier race nights rather than on the grass at Rangiora. Royal Counsel is certainly helping the cause with a very good win in the Southern Oaks recently.

One of the best and first to race here was his son Offtocullect who was exported to Western Australia and has 3 more wins to add to the 4 he got here in NZ and a 1.57.7 MR. He got one of his wins as a 2yo, but so far none of this season’s 2yo Gotta Go Cullects have managed a win. Offtocullect is the sort of horse that catches the attention of future buyers and gives a bit of confidence. Alabar NZ is selling a full sister to Offtocullect at their weanling sale on 30 May. The dam is Shazza’s Dream, a Pacific Rocket mare from the useful Marika/Russianero family.

Lot 49 Gotta Go Cullect filly from Washington VC mare. She's a half sister to the very talented Lochaburn.

Lot 49 Gotta Go Cullect filly from Washington VC mare. She’s a half sister to the very talented Lochaburn.

Lot 62 Gotta Go Cullect colt from Safely Kept mare

Lot 62 Gotta Go Cullect colt from Safely Kept mare. Same yearling as in the photo I took on the sales day.

 

 

 

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How did they fare at the yearling sales? Part 3 – Art Official

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged , on March 30, 2014| Leave a Comment »

The omens were not good when Art Official, who stands at Alabar Stud in south Auckland, had no representatives at the North Island’s Australasian yearling sale at Karaka. That surprised me, especially as his first crop of racehorses in North America had some good 2yo representatives. Simply, he is not viewed to be commercial enough. His pricing indicates that reality – he initially stood at $6000 at Stallion Station in 2010, but that was reduced to $3750 when he moved to Alabar  the following season and remains around there, which is more realistic. As a racehorse he was superb, and he is by a Falcon Seelster mare which is something New Zealanders can strongly relate to. She is the full sister to the million dollar winning mare Shady Daisy, but overall the maternal family is not as strong as some. In each generation there seems to be a standout, but other siblings are well behind that.

I think the change in Art Official’s pricing structure is also a reflection of the growing popularity of Art Major here (after several seasons where Australians loved him but New Zealand breeders and trainers were in two minds about him and he had small crops here). So like some other sires, there is an element of the son competing with the father, and that’s an arm wrestle that Art Major appears to have won.

If he was absent at Karaka, he was well represented in Christchurch yearling sale, where he had 11 yearlings, with the result of 7 sold, 3 passed in on vendor’s bid, and one that got no bid at all.

His average was $10,714 and the top price was $25,000 for Lot 235 Hashtag, a colt from a Live Or Die mare who was a bigger, bolder type.

The next in terms of price was $16,000 for a nice filly Lot 199, bred and prepared by Ray Beale at Oamaru. Again, a bigger, bolder type of horse. And the next best price after that was $11,500 for Lot 324, an attractive colt. (See photos below).

 

Lot 235 Hashtag an Art Offical colt

Lot 235 Hashtag, an Art Offical colt that sold for $25,000

Lot 199 Art Official filly from Wingspread mare

Lot 199 Art Official filly from Wingspread mare

Lot 324 Art Official colt from a New York Motoring mare

Lot 324 Art Official colt from a New York Motoring mare

To be honest, overall the Art Officials were not yearlings that caught my eye as a group in the same way the Changeovers did.  The “sire stamp” I could see (without examining yearlings in any detail for correctness issues) was a more elegant type of yearling, and by that I mean a finer boned horse, one whom you might see as racy and correct, but with an unknown factor in terms of strength, (whereas with Changeover, you can see more potential strength, but perhaps lacking the fineness.)

What do you think? I’d love to hear what you make of Art Official yearlings and 2yos that you have had something to do with, bred, bought or are training. Please add a comment to this blog or email me (check my email address on the About Isa Lodge page).

Photos below, a couple of the other Art Officials at the sale who went from less or were vendor buy-backs:

Lot 184 Art Official filly from Christian Cullen mare

Lot 184 Art Official filly from Christian Cullen mare

Lot 81 Art Official colt from Sokys Atom mare

Lot 81 Art Official colt from Sokys Atom mare

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How did they fare at the yearling sales? Part 2 – Panspacificflight

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged , on March 23, 2014| 4 Comments »

The next new sire I want to look at is Panspacificflight. He’s a sire  who has always caught my eye on his breeding and the combination of size, reach and speed he had as a racehorse himself and which he has passed on to some of his progeny (there is a dvd available from Macca Lodge and plenty of videos online).

At the Premier Yearling Sale in Christchurch this year I met Mark and Pauline O”Connor (of Denario breeding) and Brent McIntyre (of Macca Lodge, which stands Panspacificflight) and had a good look at the yearlings in the parade and sale. Panspacificflight had his second crop of yearlings for sale.

Last year he had 5 yearlings, 4 sold ($10,500, $17,000, $20,000, $25,000) and one was passed in.  That was a very solid start, commercially. Of the 4 sold, 2 have qualified as 2yos this season including First Flight In (see my recent blog).  Of his 23 registered 2yos, only 4 have qualified as 2yos but I think we’ll see a lot more as 3yos.

So the signs were positive for a good sale in 2014, but it turned out to be a lot flatter than his debut.

Of the 8 yearlings presented, 2 were passed in and the others averaged just $7063.

The best price was for a lovely looking, athletic black colt from 5-win mare Scherger Rein, which was bought by Brian Hughes for $17,000, a full brother to the mare’s previous foal (In Full Flight) that was sold last year at exactly the same price to John Dickie (and is now in the name of two of Dickie’s main owners).

Lot 36 Panspacificflight out of Sir Vancelot mare Scherger Rein was the top priced yearling from the sire at the 2014 Christchurch

Lot 36 Panspacificflight out of Sir Vancelot mare Scherger Rein was the top priced yearling from the sire at the 2014 Christchurch

However the rest of the 2014 Panspacificflight yearlings sold well below that, and would hardly be covering the costs of raising them even at the sire’s very gettable $3750 service fee.

Why? There was nothing about the yearlings that put me off; in general they seemed well proportioned, long barrelled and quite leggy but they were a mixed lot in terms of size, showing as much influence by their dams and damsires as by their 16.2hh sire. For example, Lot 77 Majestic Arden was a smaller type of colt from a Bettor’s Delight mare (sold for $8,000), whereas Lot 41 Thisismylastflight from a Christian Cullen mare looked a bolder and bigger type (passed in at $7,000).

An eyecatcher was Lot 202 Milehigh Magic who is a 2nd January foal from a Falcon Seelster mare Falcon Magic, the same family as 2yo starter First Flight In. For his age, this yearling looked a good size and beautifully presented, and was a great buy at $8,500 for Wayne Adams.

Lot 257 Fugio Denario is also by a Falcon Seelster mare who belongs to the family of Tammera and Tentative (which is a family Mark and Pauline O’Connor have long admired).

The cross with Falcon Seelster is a potentially very good one – Panspacificflight has stunning maternal lines, being from a full sister to the dam of Art Major and Perfect Art, and therefore the grandson of the great Rodine Hanover. Some of Art Major’s best performers have been from Falcon Seelster mares (Art Official being one of them.) Another Panspacificflight yearling from Falcon Seelster mare was withdrawn before the sale (Lot 98 from Tuapeka Osprey).

Artsplace is the damsire of Lot 135 First Class Arden (passed in $10,000, reserve $12,000)  – and Artsplace is a sire who has successfully crossed with Panspacificflight’s dam for the 46 win gelding Thereandpanlines (won over $900,000), plus Rodine Hanover produced Real Artist by Artsplace, and of course Art Major is by Artsplace.

Another damsires working well with Art Major and his maternal line appears to be Safely Kept, and the O’Connors put their Safely Kept mare Highview Dream to Panspacificflight to get Lot 232 Comin At Ya which sold for just $6000.

So there was some really thoughtful breeding going on here which went largely unrewarded in terms of financial return but may well prove successful on the track.

Panspacificflight himself is here because of a handshake deal between Brent McIntyre and the stallion’s Amish owner to make frozen semen available at Macca Lodge.

Like his career as a racehorse (a very good 2yo and 3yo season, suspensory injury, given his 4yo year off in the hope of getting him back to his best, but retired to stud at 5yo), Panspacificflight’s career as a sire may end up a little uneven in its progress. He stands in Indiana, and by a stud that is very locally focused. He got good numbers and good results from his first couple of years, but dropped significantly for the next two (in large part due to the arrival of Always A Virgin in the area  – see the statistics below from the Indiana Harness register). His numbers then picked up again and may well fluctuate until the bigger crops start racing. But it looks hopeful that many in Indiana returned to give him another good go.

PANSPACIFICFLIGHT (P)

Mares     Foals/        Winners                Total

Bred        Starters     2:00/1:55             Earnings

2007-IN 161           92/71         50/29            $4,652,116
2008-IN  104          56/44          30/18            $2,084,760
2009-IN  54             33/22          14/8               $581,048
2010-IN  91             49/27            5/2                $133,111
2011-IN  192           122/- – –
2012-IN  148           35/- – –
2013-IN  52 – – –

ALWAYS A VIRGIN (P)
2009-IN  159          119/101       69/42            $3,616,121
2010-IN  153          111/67          35/11            $1,143,581
2011-IN  94               50/- – –
2012-IN  65              25/- – –
2013-IN  147 – – –

In New Zealand, his numbers of live foals is very small but the arrival of his 2yos on the track – and more as next seasons 3yos – could see interest rise. We are unlikely to see his foals at next year’s yearling sales, given the trend of numbers and prices, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get some very good percentages in the long run from such small opportunities, particularly if the breeders that patronise him are thinking about the matches and giving him decent mares. As well as some of the crosses mentioned above, he’s certainly one to try with a good Live Or Die mare, in terms of latching into the top lines in his pedigree.

Panspacificflight colt Lot 77

Lot 77 Panspacificflight colt from Bettor’s Delight mare

Lot 232 Panspacificflight filly from Safely Kept mare

Lot 232 Panspacificflight filly from Safely Kept mare

Lot 202 Panspacificflight colt from Falcon Seelster mare

Lot 202 Panspacificflight colt from Falcon Seelster mare

Lot 340 Panspacificflight colt from Armbro Operative mare

Lot 340 Panspacificflight colt from Armbro Operative mare

Lot 257 Panspacificflight filly from Falcon Seelster mare

Lot 257 Panspacificflight filly from Falcon Seelster mare

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Virtual stable a little bit real this time

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged , , on March 10, 2014| 3 Comments »

As readers will know, over the past few years I’ve used the idea of a “virtual stable” of yearlings from the New Zealand yearling sales to track how hard it is to pick a good horse to buy at yearling sales and then to make something from it. The point being that those who do, regularly, deserved much credit. It has also been a way to encourage all breeders to take opportunities to look at a number of progeny from sires and families, and learn.

It has been a big part of my learning curve, and I try to attend sire parades, yearling, weanling and all aged sales when I can (work and budget allowing).

This year I journeyed south to Christchurch to view the two days of Premier yearling sales because the range of sires was greater than at Karaka’s Australasian Classic. (I’m still going to do a blog on the overall sale – mainly how sires fared. But I just need some time between day job, spraying paddocks, feeding out mares, cleaning out chook houses etc to do the numbers).

I ended up taking a less-than-virtual interest in one yearling, which I now have a quarter share in. His named is Father Frank, and he was lot 223, a Real Desire colt out of an Armbro Operative mare who is the grand-daughter of Our Stretto, the 35-win mare who performed very consistently in Australia in the late 1980s. Father Frank was bought by Frank and Ann Cooney for $12,500. He was one I had picked out for myself on type as much as breeding, and neither the Cooneys nor I have anything bad to say about the Real Desires. My own one (sold at Karaka) was a cracker of a yearling and I have much admiration for what the sire adds to the right mares. I approached the Cooneys after the sale to see if they would welcome my interest in him. Of course Frank co-trains and the Cooneys part-own the Real Desire racehorse Let’s Elope, whose run in the Auckland Cup was full of merit I thought, with a patient drive by Maurice McKendry allowing him to be (with Saveapatrol) the only horses really running on strongly behind Terror To Love and Adore Me in a 28.2 last quarter.

Two other yearlings in Christchurch interested me enough to make some serious enquiries – lot 142 Magnifico Denario, an Art Major filly from Averil’s Atom which makes her a half to Averil’s Quest. She went for $46,000 to

Lot 288 One Big Fella by Mister Big

Lot 288 One Big Fella by Mister Big

Australian buyers, which was outside the budget.  The other one was lot 288 (One Big Fella) an outstanding youngster by Mister Big from Falcon Seelster mare Killarney (dam of Bondy) also caught my eye enough in the parade to get him checked out. The only lot by Mister Big in the sales, he is a 20 December foal but very well put together and a lovely temperament. I wasn’t the only one taken by him – in the end he went to Nigel McGrath for $54,000.

So I’ve got 3 Christchurch yearlings for my virtual and not-so-virtual stable sorted.

Lot 36 Christchurch - Pacific Arden by Panspacificflight from Scherger Rein

Lot 36 Christchurch – Pacific Arden by Panspacificflight from Scherger Rein

Among many others from Christchurch that could easily have put their hooves in my stable were lot 31 (Freedom Fighter), a springy colt by Courage Under Fire from New York Motoring mare Rafiki, bought by Robert Dunn for $48,000; lot 36 (Pacific Arden), a lovely type of colt by Panspacificflight from 5-win Sir Vancelot mare Scherger Rein, bought by Brian Hughes for $17,000; lot 42 (Trusty Bromac), a Falcon Seelster colt from Badlands Hanover mare Taffeta Bromac, one of the Burgundy Lass family which sold for $11,000; and lot 128 (Al Coda), an athletic looking colt by Changeover from a Washington VC mare, bought by the McCutcheons for $21,000.

And for fillies, Lot 327 (Champagne Reign), an lovely alert strong filly by Christian Cullen from Camtastic mare Mainland Reign, which went for $60,000; lot 302 (Loren Franco), a good sized filly by Changeover from a Bettor’s Delight mare from a good branch of the Lancia family that was passed in to vendor’s bid at $6000 (reserve $12,000).  That was tempting! I liked lot 199 (Don’t Pass I’m Fast), an Art Official filly from Wingspread mare Fast Winger who has had 6 foals to race for 6 winners but the one that looked the most promising (Almost A Christian) died at 3. This was a bigger type of Art Officials, whose yearlings I thought generally were selling for less than they should because we struggle to like the finer but very correct type he is producing. Mind you, it was hard to get a line on buyer preferences for type, as some of the bolder types of Changeovers and Shark Gestures went for less than what I thought they were worth too. More on that later, when I look at the overall trends.

Another colt on breeding and type that I liked (and there were many) was lot 313 Goforjack out of the great mare Laurent Perrier. He looked big, boyish and a delightful racing prospect (photo bottom of this blog) but was sold to the Mitchells of Timaru for only $14,000.  A steal!

There were so many nice horses in Christchurch, a credit to preparers, and a bonus for the buyers who got many for less than cost. I had a feast of looking in Christchurch, and most of my picks are this time based on type alone. I took a lot of photos and I will share more and look at the new sires next week. “If dreams were horses, I’d have a stable…”

Please feel free to use the comment/response function to add your “tips” and “picks” of the yearling sales 2014. I will still keep tracking them as we go along.

Lot 191 Art Official filly don't Pass I'm Fast

Lot 191 Art Official filly Don’t Pass I’m Fast

Lot 313 Goforjack Real Desire colt

Lot 313 Goforjack Real Desire colt

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Not a slow Fokker – First Flight In

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged on March 8, 2014| 1 Comment »

My eye was caught by tomorrow’s Gore harness meeting on the grass – Race 4, a 2yo by Panspacificflight will be racing.

Panspacificflight

Panspacificflight

I’m just about to do a blog on Panspacificflight, having seen quite a few of his progeny at the yearling sales this year, and following the 2yo starters he’s had to date – which is is oldest crop here in New Zealand. He’s a sire that impresses me.

The young gelding racing at Gore is named First Flight In, and his formline so far reads 747, which is a lovely coincidence when it comes to airplanes. This horse has a wee bit more ability than that formline shows, and he’s certainly no Fokker Friendship labouring down the runway.

He’s won a couple of Invercargill trials. He was 7th when he galloped at the beginning of his first start and lost all chance. His fourth looked promising. And his last race for 7th was the Kindergarten Stakes where he drew 8 and was never near the front but stuck on well to take a personal best time of 1.55.3.

His maternal family is an old one tracing back to Dream Star, Royden Dream and other Roydon Lodge broodmares.  His immediate dam is Sharjanter, a Christian Cullen mare, and her dam Falcon Magic was also leased by Brent and Sheree McIntyre a few years ago for two breedings to Panspacificflight. A Live Or Die half sister to Falcon Magic is Love To Live, the dam of Terror To Love.

Trainer Phil Devery bought him on type at last year’s yearling sales (Lot 253 Christshurch) for about $11,000, but he proved not easy to break in, being a bit of a nervy type. Phil says he’s a good gaited horse with ability, and it will just be a matter of waiting for him to “grow into his mind and get a bit of maturity.” Looking at the videos of his races, I’d agree with that. He’s got a lovely stride, good reach, but as Phil says it will be a bit unknown on the grass at Gore particularly as he has drawn bang in the middle of the mobile gate, so there is no unruly mark to assist if he gets stirred up.

Phil says he will have to get a line on him over the next month or so and see whether it is worth keeping on for the bigger races or giving him a break and bringing him back as a nice 3yo.

Although his sire is well over 16hh, Phil says First Flight In is not a big horse, but is a good looking one.

So not a Jumbo Jet and not a Fokker. I will be watching tomorrow to see how the formline develops!

From article by Matt Smith Otago Daily Times when the horse qualified late December 2013:

Macca Lodge sire Panspacificflight sired his first qualifier at the Roxburgh Trotting Club trials on Sunday.

The American-bred sire, who won his first four starts as a 2yr-old, left a similar ability to run early on his 2yr-old crops in the United States. The son of Panderosa is only available through frozen semen at the Gore-based breeding operation, but has produced 62 live foals from 102 mares served in his three seasons in New Zealand.

His first qualifier, First Flight In, is out of the unraced Christian Cullen mare, Sharjanter. First Flight In’s time of 2.01.5 for the one mile was a comfortable 4.9sec inside the required time to qualify for driver Andrew Armour and Invercargill trainer Phil Devery.

Update post race: Phillip Devery would have been a bit frustrated as the race gave no better line on the real ability of this horse, with a false start caused by another horse probably stirring the youngster up. When they got underway again, he broke and caught the field easily, but broke again and was out of play after that. If he can develop some maturity to handle that sort of situation, he will change his formline around. I’m not the only one noting him – he went out favourite.

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Interdom, Derby and Oaks provide breeding variety

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged on March 2, 2014| Leave a Comment »

Big day at Menangle today, but rather than analyse the form or predict the race tactics, I’ll just give a quick overview on the breeding side of things.

Here is a gathering of many of the top horses in Australia and New Zealand and they are performing at staying distances.

That’s a true test of a horse.

What appeals to me is that, in spite of the dominance of some sires over the years, the fields for these sorts of races always display a range of breeding choice.

So although the Chariots of Fire will be a cracker of a race over the mile, half of that field is either by Bettor’s Delight or Art Major.

But in the staying races, it is a lot more evenly spread.

In the Interdominion Final, there is a 14 horse field, with 3 Bettor’s Delights, 2 Art Majors, 2 Courage Under Fires, and the rest have just one representative – Washington VC, Dream Away, Falcon Seelster, Christian Cullen, Famous Forever, Mach Three and Western Terror. Or looking at it in terms of siring lines – the Cam Fella line has 5 runners representing it (Bettor’s Delight, Washington VC and Famous Forever), the Direct Scooter line has 4 (Christian Cullen, courage Under Fire and Mach Three), the Abercrombie/Artsplace line has 3 (Art Major, Dream Away), and the others are from the No Nukes/Western Hanover line (Western Terror), and Bret

Seel N Print (Falcon Seelster 6yo from a Go For Grins mare) was an outsider when winning his interdominion heat but has $406,000 to his name and a good draw in the final.

Seel N Print (Falcon Seelster 6yo from a Go For Grins mare) was an outsider when winning his interdominion heat but has $406,000 to his name and a good draw in the final.

Hanover/Warm Breeze line (Seel N Print).

On the maternal side, there is a mix of deep families and families that have popped up a brilliant one almost from nowhere. However there are some quality damsires adding value here: Soky’s Atom (Im Victorious, Wartime Sweetheart), In The Pocket (Livingontheinterest and The Gold Ace), Safely Kept (Keayang Cullen, Smolda, Caribbean Blaster), Falcon Seelster (Mach Beauty and did have the first emergency Franco Nelson), plus Fake Left (For A Reason), Bookmaker (Forever Gold), DM Dilinger (Restrepo) and Go For Grins (Seel N Print).

Overall, the message for breeders from top staying races is that so-called golden crosses are really about statistics for larger populations of horses. They don’t help us predict which horses will rise above the rest and become an Interdominion champion. And they don’t necessarily work for particular families and mares.

The NSW Oaks field today also throws up a wide range of sires. Bettor’s Delight and Art Major have 2 each in the 10-horse field, and sheer weight of numbers of foals means that should be no surprise. But one of the favourites will be the McArdle filly Nike Franco, out of the great staying Badlands Hanover mare Nearea Franco who belongs to the Shy Ann family. There’s also a Live Or Die filly, a Jereme’s Jet filly, a Troublemaker filly and yes, even a Flashing Red filly.

The NSW Derby is a little different. Art Major has 3, Christian Cullen has 2, so that is half the field. But after that you get a good smattering of others with 1 each – McArdle, Bettor’s Delight, American Ideal, Jereme’s Jet, and Julius Caesar, the much less commercial brother of Christian Cullen.

There are many breeders and owners whose aim is still to breed horses that can win those classic staying races – the oaks, the derbies – and who love seeing their horse given the time to mature into a potential cup and interdominion type.

History shows that the interdominion and major cups winners can fly the flag for sires and families that would struggle to get a bid at the yearling sales!

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Average vs Median at the yearling sales

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged on February 22, 2014| 2 Comments »

Maths was never my strong suit. Thanks to Helen Smith, my maths teacher who took extra classes after school, I squeezed through School Certificate maths with 54%.  And then I had to do a statistics course at university when I majored in geography. It was torture.

But at least I know the difference between “average” and “median”. Which is useful, because they can tell quite different stories about prices at the yearling sales, both overall and for individual vendors.

PGG Wrightson (who run the sales) uses averages to monitor how the sales went. It is a useful tracking tool over time, and it does indicate if there is a strong trend in one direction or another. However we know that if 5 horses sell for $10,000 and 1 sells for $100,000, the average for the 6 is $25,000. Does that really reflect what happened? If those results are for one vendor, it is a useful indicator that overall they have well covered their costs per horse and probably made a small but welcome profit, thanks to one outstanding sale. But across a day of sales or three days of sales, I am not convinced that averages mean that much.

Before I get on to “medians” here are some quotes from PGG Wrightson about the averages for this year’s sales:

(Day 1 Christchurch) A strong middle market on the first day of the two-day New Zealand Premier Sale in Christchurch yesterday (Tuesday) saw the average price lift from $22,186 in 2013 to $25,191 in 2014. Canterbury rep for PGG Wrightson, Bruce Barlass put the 14 per cent rise in prices down to a strong Canterbury and Southland presence, as well as the healthy state of dairy farming in the South Island.

(Day 2 Christchurch) The average was also well up, rising 10% to $24,536, which came down to the large number of lots which sold within the $30-$90K bracket.
“There wasn’t as many $100,000 plus yearlings as there has been in years gone by, but the middle to top market was very strong,” said PGG Wrightson’s Rachel Deegan.

Good observations, but it is interesting how the “middle market” has now been defined as around $30-40,000, which is above the average.

I understand that the Australasian Classic at Karaka had an average of $31,577 this year.

Now let’s look at what medians can tell us. The median is the middle of a range of numbers – basically the point where there are an equal number above and below it. So in terms of yearling sales, it gives a more accurate indication of how many vendors achieved a price higher or lower than that for their horse. In all cases it covers only horses sold at the auctions, not those passed in.

Add in the fact that just to cover costs a yearling probably needs to achieve $15,000 (if you have gone to a moderately priced sire and are doing the raising and preparation yourself) or over $20,000 (if you have gone to an expensive sire and are being charged for raising and preparation).  These are ballpark figures, but they give a steer on what a vendor needs as a realistic return on investment.

The median at the Australasian Classic (Karaka) sale this year was $26,000. In other words, an equal number of horses sold for less than that, and more than that.

For the total Premier (Christchurch) sale the median was $16,000. That indicates that about 126 horses sold for less and 126 horses sold for more. That’s a lot of horses not making it to break-even.

So medians paint quite a different picture compared to averages.

Father Frank a Real Desire colt

Father Frank, Christchurch Lot 223, a lovely Real Desire colt sold for only $12,500 – appropriately to Frank and Ann Cooney.

I’ll dig a little deeper, using $15,000 bands – of the almost 100 lots sold by auction at Karaka, 31 were $15,000 or less, 29 were between $16,000 and $30,000, and another 18 were between $31,000 and $45,000.  That’s about 60% of horses selling for less than $31,000, and 78% for less than $46,000. About 30% probably hardly covered costs and certainly wouldn’t have made a decent return on investment and risk.

Same story in Christchurch. 126 lots sold for less than $15,000. That’s about 50% of the lots that were sold by auction on the day. Another 87 sold between $16,000 and $30,000. That’s just over 80% of lots selling for less than $30,000.

So you can start to see why vendors were feeling a bit mixed about the results by the end of it. So much depended on whether you had enough good results or one really excellent one to average out your overall return.

Or looking at it from the other side of the business, it was a buyer’s market. Yes, there was good competition for the top end horses. But you could sense the effort required to get bidding beyond $10,000, and again to shift it over $20,000. Once over $30,000, the bigger bidders came in – and that is why many buyers with smaller pockets felt they could not get a decent look-in at the better quality, more commercially bred horses. On the other hand, they had a wealth of opportunity to pick up some very well raised attractive individuals at quite cheap prices, if they had done their homework.

The lower end prices were not necessarily a reflection on the individual product.

Often it was just a case of type, family and sire. It is such a conservative buying market. I’ll look at that in more detail next time.

Once again, these figures don’t include the passed in lots that were later sold (and quite of few of them were in the higher range). But the sheer volume of <$15,000 lots in unlikely to alter very much at all.

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Thank you Zenterfold

Posted in Harness racing, Horses, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding, tagged , , , on February 14, 2014| Leave a Comment »

Tonight I paid the bill for the working fee for my mare Zenterfold. That’s for her current season, and she is in foal to Rock N Roll Heaven.

But the flip side of paying bills is what this lovely mare delivers. Because an hour later I watched her 3yo son, Destination Moon, win very well at Alexandra Park – his second win in his last two starts. That makes his record now 3 wins and 3 seconds from just 10 starts. He’s owned by Rosslands (Kerry Hoggard), trained by Steven Reid and Simon McMullan, and driven by Josh Dickie.

And then tomorrow I will be watching as Kym Kearns (who raises and prepares my foals) load his half brother yearling, Thephantomtollbooth, onto the float and we will be heading to the yearling sales in Auckland.

Neither Destination Moon nor ThePhantomtollbooth are by expensive sires – Grinfromeartoear and Real Desire respectively – but they are sires I chose for their compatibility with Zenterfold, in type and pedigree.

Same with Tintin In America, her first and (so far) best foal by McArdle.

I don’t breed “the best to the best and hope for the best”. I breed a 4 win mare who showed an incredibly determined and competitive attitude and a ton of sprint speed, to the sires that I believe add the most value and help produce the type of foal I’m looking for. One that will perform very well on the track. And with amazing help from Kym in raising and educating them, I try to give them every chance to fulfil their potential.

A ton of credit goes to the mare Zenterfold and the quality branch of the family she is forming.

Bee with Zenterfold

Bee with Zenterfold

I breed Zenterfold alternatively with Geoff and Aria Small, and the spacing of every other year is great – it gives me time to think and see the results from my last choice, and it also takes off some of the financial pressures for a small-time breeder.

Zenterfold is a lovely horse to have around. She can be bossy with other horses, but she loves interaction with humans. She’s a fantastic mum. She has a McArdle colt on her at the moment, for Geoff and Aria, and when that foal is weaned Zenterfold will be heading down here (Cambridge) as usual. She’s a shuttle mare, and I think she knows and kind of enjoys the routine now.

I’m really looking forward to seeing her again.

Thephantomtollbooth is Lot 39 at Karaka (prepared by Isa Lodge), and Zenterfold’s daughter The Blue Lotus has a very nice Bettor’s Delight filly  Lot 34 (prepared by Breckon Farms) in the same sale. The Blue Lotus is a full sister to Destination Moon and was placed 3rd in the 3yo Sires Stakes Fillies Final behind Carabella and Bettor Cover Lover, before she got a minor tendon tear early and was retired to stud.

All the best to everyone who is preparing, selling and buying yearlings at the moment, in Australia and New Zealand.  The mood feels more positive than the last couple of years.

I will blog again in a week, after attending both Karaka and Christchurch sales.

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