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Four radical solutions

Posted in Harness racing, Standardbred breeding on April 7, 2013| 1 Comment »

I’m not interested in harness racing surviving the current downward trends in stakes, horse numbers, attendances, and betting figures.

I’m interested in it reinventing itself to become an exciting industry to be involved in for the future.

Merely surviving becomes a goal in its own right. And that is when the bell starts tolling.

We can’t afford to hunker down and wait for “things to change” or more money to miraculously appear. We need to be actively pursuing ideas that will position us well for that moment, or indeed help make that moment happen and then capitalise on it.

We hear it said loud and clear: There is no money.

But when ideas start to flow in a positive way, when we really get brainstorming with an open mind, we can create opportunities and energy. That’s what can attract any money that is around.

So here are 4 radical solutions to re-energise the NZ breeding pool (I will look at each one in more detail over the next month of blogging, including how they might be funded.)

Allow breeders to breed 2 foals from an individual mare (no more than 2) per breeding season.
Create meaningful breeders bonuses related to first win or all wins of all NZ-bred horse.
Place a limit of 100 on all NZ available stallions for the next 3 years.
Attach winners’ credits to breeders of fillies (transferable only to current owners)

First up I’ll look at why I have changed my mind about embryonic transfers – and how this idea could grow our pool of broodmares as well as our number of foals.

And if you haven’t read it previously, check out my ideas for making our racing product more interesting and attractive. I rated heat racing and rewards for times as two possibilities – and look what happens, HRV gives the new Great Southern Star series a format that culminates in two heats and a final on the same night, plus rewards fastest placed heat times with additional berths in the final. Yes, it can be done. Many of our current race meetings (even at the highest level) lack the structure of an exciting event, and this is one way to attract punters and attendances. We were all shocked at the demise of the Interdom Trotting Series. The nay-sayers were out in full force as the alternative format came to light. BUT the new format has really added value – congratulations Harness Racing Victoria!

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Breeding syndicate update

Posted in Standardbred breeding on March 29, 2013| Leave a Comment »

As many of you know early in the year I proposed a new concept for a breeding syndicate, which might draw new people to breeding or at least retain some disillusioned but keen ones who were battling with costs and poor outcomes. I advertised through my blogsite, in the NZ Harness Weekly and most importantly in Breeding Matters.

The response level was really low, with most coming from Australia and several who were already breeding successfully so not really meeting my criteria. There were a couple of people who were exactly what I was looking for. But I needed at least 15 people to make the concept work.

I have made the call not to proceed with the syndicate.

Thanks to everyone who showed interest – the concept itself got a lot of favourable comments.

I like to think outside the square, and I like to be positive. It was worth floating the idea, regardless of the outcome.

It’s something I’d look at trying again perhaps in the future, with some tweaks and more support from established organisations.

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NZ Yearling sales 2013 – how did newer sires go?

Posted in Harness racing, Standardbred breeding, tagged Yearling sales on March 2, 2013| Leave a Comment »

The main difficulty for newer sires is to get enough representation at this level to make an impact. Elsewhere I’ve said a new sire (i.e. unproven one starting a career) really needs to have 10+ progeny across the sales, preferably 20+. See my blog of 13 January on this topic.

So which sires made that mark, and how did they fare?

I’ll look at Changeover (37), Justa Tiger (12), Stonebridge Regal (11), Art Official (10) and Santanna Blue Chip (10).

Changeover’s yearlings

Changeover had 37 yearlings offered and overall a very pleasing result. Talking to Peter O’Rourke (it so happened to be on his last day in his role at Nevele R Stud), he remarked that Changeover has had good books of mares and positive sales results, but now will need to prove himself on the track. Of his sales yearlings, Peter said: “They looked good and breeders were not prepared to give them away.” He said he knew of several passed in lots (there were 7) that had converted to sales soon afterwards.

To my mind, his pricing at $4,000 service fee, his solid pedigree and perhaps most of all the respect trainers had for him as a racehorse makes him attractive. Will the Changeovers be 2yo types? The yearlings I saw were attractive but quite rangey, with good height and a longish bodies. Perhaps more 3yo types, but look how well some of the Mach Threes have done as younger horses. Changeover himself won 2 races as a 2yo and $140,000 and simply got stronger and better with age. So there’s plenty of potential there – fingers crossed for the great horse to make it.

Changeover’s Results:
Australasian (Karaka) Sale – 4 lots offered, all sold. Range $10,000 – $35,000. Average $21,750
Premier (Christchurch) Day 1 – 13 lots offered, 8 sold. Range $13,000 – $23,000. Average $17,250. (Note: One of lots on Day 1 was passed in at $40,000 with a reserve of $49,000, a filly from Sly Shard).
Premier Day 2 – 20 lots offered, 18 sold. Range $2,500 – $23,000. Average $8,422.

Justa Tiger

I blogged about Highview’s Dave and Allan Clarke’s decision to back their sire and put his yearlings into the Premier sale. I still believe it is a courageous move – but it didn’t pay off financially. To be honest, they had a sale from hell. 6 of the 11 lots offered (including the sole lot that made it into Day 1) were passed in, 3 of them without a bid. And of the 5 that sold, 3 of them were for less than $3000. The best sale on the day was Lot 301 called Tiger Minx from a very solid family, second dam having left 7 winners. That colt sold for $10,000.

I spoke to Allan Clarke recently and he said there just wasn’t a middle market at the sales, and those yearlings that didn’t get the attention of the buyers were sold very, very cheaply. However Highview have managed to place most of the ones that didn’t sell to local trainers, and it will be fingers crossed that Justa Tiger has something eyecatching at the races soon. My pick will be the colt Rosewood Tiger, a half brother to the talented Johnny Fox. Allan Clarke says he will be taking a break and looking for a new direction – his own yearling from the very good mare Baptism Of Fire sold at the other extreme, the full brother to Highview Tommy going for $122,000.

Do I think the Justa Tigers were poor types of yearlings? No, but I do think Justa Tiger has an uphill battle because he was one of several tough, honest, talented racehorses getting results in very good races and yet just lacking that ‘wow’ factor to translate into commerical appeal. Also trainers are short of “try it and see” money – because as Allan rightly said, in the current climate there is less funding for trainers to make speculative purchases and then find owners afterwards. It’s about risk. Trainers were buying fewer horses, and by sires that potential owners will know and feel are proven. In that climate, a poorer type by Bettor’s Delight will be preferred over a nice type by Justa Tiger.

Stonebridge Regal

This is a sire that has, for me, flown under the radar as his yearling lots were exclusively in the Premier Sales in Christchurch. 8 of his 11 lots offered were on Day 2 and all but 1 sold, with the top price being $14,000. On Day 1 he had just 3 lots and they all sold, with the top price of $28,000 being paid by Tony Herlihy for a colt out of a Christian Cullen mare.

His foals born in 2011 are really his only significant crop here in New Zealand – 100 served and 82 live foals, with Wai Eyre standing him at around $4000; he had a smaller number of mares his next season and then was shipped to Victoria I believe mid 2012. He’s a sire that would not have been a “name” downunder, as he didn’t really win any of the top races in North American but accumulated “legs” and divisions of them. However his progeny are doing alright over there and some going early. But he may not be available again here regardless. He looked a handsome horse himself, and perhaps his yearlings have sold more on type? Didn’t see them, so cannot really comment.

Stonebridge Regal’s results
Premier Day 1 – 3 lots offered, all sold – $15,000, $18,000, $28,000
Day 2 – 8 lots offered, 7 sold. Range $2,750 – $14,000
Overall average across 3 days – $10,840

Art Official

Art Official had 10 lots offered, from his first crop of just 39 live foals. He had a considerably bigger book of mares in his second season so a decent result from these sales was important in terms of marking him as a truly commercial sire and giving confidence to those breeders who have supported him, because his number slid a bit in his third season last year.

Overall, I think Alabar would have been pleased; it was a strong showing from small numbers.

Art Official’s results:
Australasian sale – 4 lots offered, 2 sold – $22,000 and $11,000.
Premier Day 1 – 2 lots offered, 1 sold – a filly for $23,000, and the passed in lot had a reserve of $20,000.
Day 2 – 4 offered, 3 sold – $12,000, $15,000 and $38,000 (which was the top lot of the day)
Average across the three days = $20,333.

Santanna Blue Chip

The Santanna Blue Chip foals and yearlings that I’ve seen are very athletic, strong and attractive types. It is his second yearling sale here in NZ, but he only 2 lots at the Australasian , 5 in Premier Day 1, and 3 in the Day 2 sale. Mind you, only 2 were passed in, and there were 2 that sold for $20,000 plus. However his average overall was $13,625. This was only the second time his yearlings had been offered at the sale, and it is interesting to see that he served over 114 in his latest season, considerably up on his previous 3 seasons. The two SBC yearlings I saw ‘in the flesh’ at Karaka were eyecatchers, the filly (Lot 153 and a half to Cyamach) made a good $22,000. The colt at that sale was passed in for $9,000 but is being advertised post sale for $10,000 I believe, and I recall it was a nice long barrelled type.

What he needs at this stage is a couple of very nice 2 or 3yos to pop up on the track so that breeders who have kept the faith will feel like his reputation will be tracking up by the time their foals are born. He stood at $4000 for these 2013 yearlings.

Santanna Blue Chip’s results:
Australasian sale – 2 lots offered, 1 sold for $22,000.
Premier Day 1 – 5 lots offered, 4 sold – $8,000, $10,000, $11,000, $25,000
Day 2 – 3 lots offered, all sold – $8,000, $10,000, $15,000

Average across 3 days = $13,625

Other sires? Just too few yearlings to make fair assessment.

(As always, stats are not underpinned by ruthless technically enhanced accuracy, and more likely to be supported by a glass of light wine. Cheers!)

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For sale

Posted in Standardbred breeding on February 24, 2013| 1 Comment »

Advertising on behalf – please contact Ken Mackay direct if you are interested. This looks like quite a nice deal. The mare is 12yo and is Straphanger x Arndon’s Pride. Breeder is Michelle Carson.

3-in-1 package for sale.

Includes the trotting mare Strapless ( striking looking mare who
leaves beautiful foals ) with a beautiful black Angus Hall colt at
foot ( white star and one white sock ) and in foal to The Pres.
$15000+GST for the package.

Contact Ken Mackay at premierpedigrees@gmail.com

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NZ yearling sales 2013 – the trotters

Posted in Standardbred breeding, tagged Angus Hall, Yearling sales on February 24, 2013| Leave a Comment »

60 lots in the catalogue (18 in the Australasian, 18 on Premier Day 1 and 24 on Premier Day 2).

There were 17 trotting sires represented – a huge range – but that meant the numbers for individual sires was often very low, and it is hard to draw conclusions.

There is a much smaller buying market for trotters in New Zealand than for pacers, and the buying bench from Australia was not a significant factor for the trotters, perhaps less so than in previous years? However in the top range, the offerings were good types and sold well.

The passed in rate was high, and although many were close to their Reserve price and may well have sold in subsequent private negotiations, a few were well short of their Reserve.

Averages are really meaningless in this scenario.

Top price was for Lot 33 Angus Hall x Landora’s Special colt who was bought for $127,500.

Look at prices for Angus Hall yearlings and Majestic Son (son of Angus Hall) yearlings:
Angus Hall: $127,500, $42,000, $24,000
Majestic Son: $32,500, $26,000, $20,000, $20,000, $15,000 (plus only one passed in at $12,000)

Pegasus Spur (7 lots) had a very mixed sale, with 4 passed in lots at Karaka in the $6-12,000 range , but a good $50,000 sale on Premier Day 1 for the full sister to Paramount Geegee.

Monarchy (8 lots) got two sales at $26,000 plus one at $15,000 and another passed in at $16,000 but the others were in the $8-10,000 range.

Other trotting sires were represented by 5 or less yearlings across the 3 days of sales, and so it is really hard to pick any trends regarding those sires. The Pres had 5 lots on offer – selling one for $18,000 at the Australasian, plus one passed in at $10,000, and two selling for $10,000, one for $7,000 at Premier Day 2.

Skyvalley also had 5 lots – selling at $20,000 and $4,500, with lots passed in at $24,000, $7,000 and $12,000. The last of these was a filly out of the Last Lord mare Princess Della and therefore a half sister to Kyvalley Mac and Dealornodeal, and the McRaes had a $37,000 Reserve on her which I think was a good move considering her future breeding potential. See my blog on Princess Della.

Sundon had just 4 lots – selling for $18,000, $22,000, $5000 and passed in at $20,000 (Reserve $40,000).

Summary of trotting sales

Australasian – 18 lots offered, 9 sold on the day (3 to Australian buyers)

Premier Day 1 – 18 lots offered, 12 sold (2 to Australia)

Premier Day 2 – 22 lots offered, 18 sold (2 to Australia)

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NZ Premier Yearling Sales Day 1 and 2 – analysis

Posted in Standardbred breeding on February 23, 2013| Leave a Comment »

Very pleased to see Day 1 in Christchurch held up well, but interesting to see some statistical details of key commercial sires. I’m pleased for the vendors’ sake that Bettor’s Delight had such a good sale and superb averages. Art Major fared better in Christchurch, with fewer being passed in and a better average. American Ideal performed consistently well on Day 1 from small numbers but his average was quartered for the same number sold on the difficult Day 2 – but they all sold.

I’ve done these in the same format as for the blog on the Australasian (Karaka) Sale so it’s easier to compare – just scroll down to that blog or click here. But because Day 1 and Day 2 in Christchurch are such different types of sales I have not merged the statistics. The top sires are under-represented on Day 2, and many unproven or middle-of-the-road sires get their day. The top lot on Day 2 was by Art Official.

All the results are available on the PGG Wrightson website and well displayed so people like us can sort according to columns.

In my next blog I will have look at trotters overall, and the blog after that will touch on some of the newer sires at the sales and hopefully some comments from Nevele R on Changeover’s debut, Highview Standardbreds on Justa Tiger, and Alabar on some of their newer sires).

It was remiss of me not to include Christian Cullen in my initial analysis of the Australasian sale’s pacing sires, so I will add him in retrospectively in the earlier blog.

Don’t take my figures as gospel, I’m a plodder when it comes to numbers, but hopefully they are 97.748% accurate (lol)

Day 1

Bettor’s Delight

44 lots offered.

39 sold (88%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $1,588,500
Price range $3,000-$122,000
Average price: $40,730
Average price without top lot: $34,902
Number of lots <$20,000 = 6 (15% of his lots sold by auction)

Art Major

23 lots offered.

20 sold (86%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $810,500
Price range $3,000-$122,000
Average price: $40,525
Average price minus lots $100,000+): $33,710
Number of lots <$20,000 = 6 (30% of lots sold by auction)

American Ideal

8 lots offered.

6 sold (75%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $170,000
Price range: $15,000-$52,000
Average price: $28,416
Number of lots <$20,000 = 2 (33% of lots sold by auction)

Mach Three

7 lots offered

6 sold (86%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $187,000
Price range: $11,000-$55,000
Average price: $31,166
Number of lots <$20,000 = 2 (33%)

Christian Cullen

17 lots offered

15 sold (88%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $492,500
Price range: $9,000-$60,000 (but one passed in for $97,500 with reserve of $100,000)
Average price: $32,833
Number of lots <$20,000 = 4 (26%)

Day 2

Bettor’s Delight

5 offered
3 sold ($13,000-$20,000)
Average: $16,333

Art Major

1 offered, passed in.

American Ideal

6 offered
6 sold
Average: $7,416

Mach Three

4 offered
4 sold
Average: $10,125

Christian Cullen

3 offered
1 sold for $21,000

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Virtual yearling stables for 2013

Posted in Standardbred breeding on February 21, 2013| 4 Comments »

This year I’m going head-to-head with Ken Mackay (from Premier Pedigrees) and his daughter Alana who is, Ken says, uncanny at picking these things!

So for those who want to join in, this year’s rules are 3 colts and 3 fillies from the Australasian yearling sale only. We make selections now, and then follow everyone’s picks on a season by season basis on this blogsite and the winner gets….well, just the enjoyment and prestige of picking something that actually gets to the races!!

Previous virtual stables are still running, and I will do an update on all of them over the next month.

Come on, join in – Just add your stable by clicking on “Comment” at the bottom of the blog. But please stick to the criteria of 3 colts and 3 fillies only from the Australasian sale at Karaka.

The head-to-head has been based on pedigree and (for Ken and myself anyway) on observing the yearlings at the sales. But you can pick on any criteria you want, helps if you explain briefly your approach.

All of us selected Lot 173 colt – I’ve opted to go for something different in my picks just to broaden the range, but will be following him with interest.
Overall, I was attracted to types with a bit of scope, perhaps more 3yo types.

Bee’s selections

Lot 133 Classic Bromac – look at that fantastic roman nose!

Colts:
Lot 15 Kurahaupo King (Live Or Die x Kurahaupo Charm)
A 2nd December foal but already well put together, athletic, from a solid family.

Lot 133 Classic Bromac (Mach Three x Classic Blue Jeans)
Tall type, plenty of scope, not necessarily early. Lovely roman nose. Great family and first one by Mach Three.

Lot 134 Hard N Fast (Christian Cullen x Black and Royal)
CC colt out of an Elsu mare – I did a blog on her first foal. Lovely type.

Fillies:
Lot 10 Comekissmequick (Art Major x Inter Shape)
A well proportioned filly with scope, perhaps not an early type but really liked her. And from a “classy” family.

Lot 122 Classical Art (Mach Three x Art Lover)
A big, tall filly.

Santanna Jewel

Lot 153 Santanna Jewel (Santanna Blue Chip x Cyathea)
Half sister to Cyamach, and I’m impressed by the physical type of the Santanna Blue Chip yearlings I saw this and last year. Lovely body, strong frame.

Ken Mackay’s selections
Colts:
Lot 65 Tenacious Bromac (Bettor’s Delight x Tandias Courage)
Lot 145 Royal Loyal (Bettor’s Delight x Braeside Lady)
Lot 173 Lightning Flight (Mach Three – Flight Of Fantasy)

Fillies:
Lot 107 Heart Stealer (Bettor’s Deight x Fight Fire With Fire)
Lot 109 Hartofdixie (American Ideal x Splendid Deal)
Lot 178 Bettor Be Supreme (Bettor’s Delight x Galleons Supreme)

Lot 173 Lightning Flight with Robert Mitchell from preparers Wairau Farm

Alana Mackay’s selections

Colts:
Lot 84 De Tiger (Mach Three – Tigers Delight)
Lot 173 Lightning Flight (Mach Three – Flight Of Fantasy)
Lot 105 A Good Deal (American Ideal – Welcome Star)

Fillies:
Lot 128 Gotta Go Ice Lady (Gotta Go Cullect – Armbro Ice)
Lot 94 Trixie Bromac (Mach Three – Trapiche)
Lot 41 Verde Lima (Bettor’s Delight – Oaxaca Lass)

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Australasian Yearling Sales results – Mach Three stands up

Posted in Harness racing, Standardbred breeding, tagged Mach Three, Yearling sales on February 20, 2013| Leave a Comment »

How are the results shaping up?

The Australasian sale at Karaka was very mixed – highs and lows in prices, a smaller bench of NZ buyers and some good support from Australian buyers. As noted in other publications, a high “passed in” rate which may be vendors adjusting to the new Reserve system or just not willing to let well bred fillies (in particular) be devalued because of the current market. Many of those passed in will translate into private sales of course, but it was very noticeable during the auction itself.

The Bettor’s Delights held up well although there were still 11 out of the 42 sold going for under $20,000 – although often you could see why. I don’t mean to sound critical saying that, but buyers in this economic climate will always be picky about families and type, and the smaller Bettor’s Delights found little interest if they were a finer type or from families that had little black type or current eye-catching performers. Lesson? You can try to upgrade families by going to excellent sires, but any positive results may appear later on the racetrack rather than earlier in the auction ring. So you have to be ready for a patient and expensive process.

Art Major had a flat sale, with many not meeting their Reserve price. Enough NZ buyers and trainers are still holding back from all-out endorsement of this sire to pose questions for breeders – is the market going to change for next time? Will Art Major’s results on the track next two seasons convert everyone into fans? And are the rumours about “leg issues” based on anything or just a few isolated horses and a lot of gossip? And the talk about” “some just don’t want to be there” – well, isn’t that horses? Even 50% (approx) of Christian Cullen’s progeny were not winners.

Mach Three had a great sale, and congratulations to breeders who have stuck with him. His 2yo stock started to show up again at just the right time. He’s got some older showy runners performing well right now. Overall, the Mach Three yearlings looked decent sized, athletic types with longer barrels and a real presence about many of them.

The trotters were up and down – with only very few representatives it is best to wait for the results from Christchurch before doing the stats on them and the newer pacing sires.

Personally?
Isa Lodge had a very pleasing result with Kym’s Angus Hall colt (lot 69) selling to Lincoln Farms for $42,000.

All the results of the Australasian sales are now posted on PGG Wrightson’s Sale of the Stars website
Christchurch results are being posted as they happen.

Keep in mind a general idea of breeding costs. Of course that depends on how much you can carry yourself and how much you have to pay commercial rates for various breeding expenses or carry overheads on a property etc. However let’s take a figure of $10-15,000 for foal to yearling sales costs, to which the sire’s service fee (which might be discounted or not) needs to be added. So in very general terms, a vendor really needs $20-25,000+ to cover costs/fees and get a return on such a risky investment. Those able to do much of the foaling, raising and preparing work themselves on their own property will have a lower point of breaking even and starting to get a profit, and those selling larger numbers can spread the risk across their draft. But $20,000 is a “ballpark figure” for those paying commercial costs and going to ‘sales type’ sires.

Just a few observations and some quickly calculated stats. Remember that averages hide a wide range – delighted vendors doubling their money, many just covering costs, and some gutted and selling at a significant loss.

Overall NZ trends will only become apparent after today and tomorrow’s Premier Sale days in Christchurch.

Bettor’s Delight

51 lots offered.

42 sold (82%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $1,690,000
Price range $3,000-$210,00
Average price: $40,238
Average price without top lot: $36,794
Average price without top 3 lots ($100,000+): $31,794
Number of lots <$20,000 = 11 (26% of lots sold by auction)

Art Major

22 lots offered.

13 sold (59%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $312,500
Price range $11,000-$50,000
Average price: $24,000
Number of lots <$20,000 = 7 (53% of lots sold by auction)

American Ideal

13 lots offered.

8 sold (61%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $177,000
Price range: $5,500-$82,500
Average price: $22,000
Average price without top lot: $13,500
Number of lots <$20,000 = 6 (75% of lots sold by auction)

Mach Three

15 lots offered

13 sold (86%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $475,000
Price range: $8,500-$120,000
Average price: $36,576
Average price without top lot: $29,583
Number of lots <$20,000 = 3 (23%)

Christian Cullen

16 lots offered

11 sold (68%)
Buyers total spend on the day: $242,000
Price range: $7,000-$65,000 (but one passed in for $97,500 with reserve of $100,000)
Average price: $22,000
Number of lots <$20,000 = 7 (63%)

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Off to the yearling sales!

Posted in Standardbred breeding, tagged Angus Fogg, Angus Hall sire, Yearling sales on February 16, 2013| Leave a Comment »

Angus Fogg Lot 69 is on his way to Karaka sales complex.

Here are some photos of Kym Kearns giving him a wash before loading him on the float for the 2-hour trip from Cambridge to Auckland.

He’s grown into a lovely strong type, and will end up being a bit bigger than we initially thought. A really handsome fella with a lovely personality. He’s keen to get started!

I’d like to wish all breeders and vendors a really good sale. It is a nervous time, and takes less than 5 minutes in the ring to bring a result for many months of hard work and tender loving care.