You’ve come a long way baby! The Blue Lotus as a little foal in 2007.
OK it’s time to announce a winner for the Match My Mare And Win A Share competition.
Boy was that hard to judge! There was a total of 25 entries, and from 17 individuals. This was a great result, as the entries required some research and thought rather than being a “pick the name” type competition. So many thanks to you all.
What I was looking for was thoughtful advice that gave me confidence your recommended sire will tick the important boxes for my mare The Blue Lotus (aka “Lottie”).
The word limit initially was about 400 words but many of you went well over that. Although I relaxed the rules around the length, I have factored in that those who tried to keep to the rules were at the disadvantage of not being able to fully outline the details of their reasoning, particularly in terms of the pedigree matching. Where they flagged up the key elements, I have taken that as enough without the detailed analysis others provided (sometimes over several pages!)
However very short entries (like just the name of a sire, or just a sentence or two) were pretty much scratched at the start or failed to line up behind the mobile arm and didn’t really take much part in the race.
Yes I have looked at it like a race. Hope you will enjoy the analogy!
The finish was a classic, with a group of four or five virtually crossing the line together – you could throw a blanket over them.
Very close behind was another group “all dressed up and nowhere to go” as Aaron White might say.
Plus one unlucky runner in great form who broke at the start (because his suggested sire was not available).
And finally there was an exciting outsider who ran on strongly from back in the field.
In the end the result came down to a photo finish between two very different entries – Brian Cowley (A Rocknroll Dance) who was race fit and excellent over the mile (325 words covered what the sire offers, what the mare offers, commercial factors, and two key pedigree influences), whereas Mark Wilkens (Shadow Play if Real Desire semen not available) took a roundabout route to get into the clear, flagging up about 6 or more potential options before boiling it down to two. With less driver indecision in the race he would have probably got the win!
So congratulations to Brian Cowley – the winner – with his recommendation of A Rocknroll Dance.
Regarding A Rocknroll Dance, he was not a sire I had lined up for The Blue Lotus, so my decision was not influenced by my own preferences. A tip o’ the hat to John Chew, Richard Prior and Adam Wilkinson who also made a good case for A Rocknroll Dance, with slightly different emphasis – Richard had more detail on the pedigree side of things, Adam on the insights into the type and temperament, and John on compatibility of lines. But overall, it was Brian’s entry on A Rocknroll Dance which wrapped it into a short but convincing package.
Second place by a whisker goes to Mark Wilkens who really engaged my interest with his easy-to-read outline of his own selection process which I thought showed a balanced analysis of several different factors, not just pedigree matching. His first choice of Real Desire was, by chance, a sire that I had also looked at for Lottie, but after checking with Alabar I confirmed that Real Desire semen is not available here at all. Luckily for Mark he had predicted that and offered Shadow Play as his substitute. Although Shadow Play is a sire I like and have already tried for The Blue Lotus (she is foaling to him in October), it was Mark’s overall approach, his analysis of The Blue Lotus’s pedigree and his balanced view of Shadow Play that appealed to me. He weighed up some of the other factors including the likely commercial demand for Shadow Play in a few years’ time.
Then was a wall of horses (entries) finishing very close up in this competition, and many of them showcased your ability to analyse bloodlines and match pedigrees at a level of detail and using formulas (such as Norman Hall’s) which I am not very familiar with myself. You guys rock! I really appreciated your entries, and I found them very interesting. The amount of research done on identifying the best pedigree matches was incredible – Kevin (McArdle and Badlands Hanover), Alana McKay (Rocknroll Hanover), Noel Eade (Art Major) and David Sinclair (Rock N Roll Heaven), your knowledge and detailed analysis in this area is fantastic and I take off my hat to you. It has given me heaps of food for thought, and identified some outstanding options for the future. My only comment is that although some of you included a double up of Artsplace (Darryl Lawlor for Western Terror, Noel for Art Major, David for Rock N Roll Heaven) you didn’t reassure me on that score, in spite of me flagging it up in my blog. But that’s a minor point.
Several entries (Darryl, Gavin Anderson and Kevin) suggested McArdle partly on the demonstrated compatibility of The Blue Lotus’s family with the Falcon Seelster line and the speed McArdle can inject into his very best, like the outstanding McWicked in North America. And there is the commercial link with The Blue Lotus’s half-brother Tintin In America. However as Darryl rightly says, McArdle is a hard one to pin down in terms of commercial appeal and although his percentages are consistently good overall for starters/winners, he still lacks the outstanding individuals he really needs in each crop. I agree, though, it is a tempting proposition.
However now I come to (almost) the complete outsider in the field of entries. Mike Finlayson put forward Tintin In America as his recommended match for half-sister The Blue Lotus. At first glance I thought “woops, a mistake here” – but I should have known better, as Mike is an astute breeder and sure enough he was making a very controversial but well thought out case for such close inbreeding. His entry kept popping up in my mind – not because I want to try it, or because he was suggesting a sire I had bred, but because it is a great example of fearlessly thinking outside the square and backing that up with good reasoning. Mike’s entry is the horse in the field that comes from a seemingly impossible position at the back to fly down the outside. So Mike Finlayson sticks a cheeky neck out on the line to get third place in the competition! Closer in breeding is something Charlie Roberts of Woodlands Stud is trying lately as well. And look at the pedigree of A Rocknroll Dance, with the double up to strong maternal influence Wendymae Hanover, although Mike’s proposed match is a lot closer than that. Half brother and half sister is still a step too far for me. Great, provocative entry Mike!
There are a few others I’d like to acknowledge and respond to:
David Sinclair’s first choice of Tell All didn’t even score up behind the mobile as Tell All (a son of Real Desire from a Jate Lobell mare) is only available to Australian breeders. However his recommendation coincided with my own discovery of Tell All as a potential sire for Lottie. Snap! A great entry. The match really got me really excited until I checked with Ron Burrell and found there was no chance at all of getting semen here. Tell All has done a good job so far as a sire in North America. In spite of the commercial question marks here, I would love to give it a go. David’s substitute runner was Rock N Roll Heaven and he advocated long and hard and well, but it just didn’t resonate with me in the same way as Tell All did.
Sam Langrope made a passionate and well thought out case for Lis Mara, which thoroughly entertained me. However Sam, I see Lis Mara as being similar in type to Grinfromeartoear – not really a sire of speed, even though he was very quick himself. The Cam Fella line seems to do that, leave sires who are extremely fast on the track but can’t seem to pass that on to their offspring consistently. Cam’s Card Trick/Bettor’s Delight being the obvious exception, but the maternal line plays a real role there.
Andrew Lewis put a plug in for Elsu which is definitely breeding back to the family, although not as closely as Mike suggested with Tintin In America. Elsu was a magic horse and leaves great “bread and butter” horses. Two things that didn’t convince me for The Blue Lotus – if I am looking to inject more speed into The Blue Lotus, I don’t see Elsu has providing that. And also the cross with Zenterfold and Elsu has been tried by Geoff and Aria Small, to get a lovely, big colt who did qualify at 2yo but never showed the real zip of speed needed to be competitive, even though given plenty of time, and had ongoing stifle problems. Commercially, it would be all risk and possibly little reward.
Colin Harris suggested Changeover (whom I love as a sire) but perhaps needed to convince me more about why the match would suit The Blue Lotus, compared to other options. I wouldn’t be adverse to that double up of In The Pocket as he appears in quite different parts of the pedigree. But having seen some of his yearlings, I wonder on type if he might duplicate the sort of scopey type that The Blue Lotus is? He is definitely one I would keep in my mind, though.
Barry Abbott’s two entries were for Roll With Joe and Falcon Feelster. The Blue Lotus’s first foal is by Bettor’s Delight, just turned 2yo, and Ken Barron reports on her very favourably so far. I think if I was going down that pedigree path I would return to the more proven, commercial brother rather than Roll With Joe. But Barry, your point about Falcon Seelster is a very good one, and has got me thinking. There are some lovely duplications there.
Graeme Whelan recommended Mach Three and mentioned Sportwriter. Although I agree with Mach Three’s quality, I needed more reasons why the match would be good. Same for Sportswriter – the Jate Lobell maternal line could be a good match for a Grin mare, but there is that Artsplace double up that I want to be convinced about.
The complete outsider of the field, probably taking a short cut through the pylons, was Elizabeth Thorne-McKenzie from America, who is a huge Crazed fan. Yes, that’s Crazed the trotting sire. I know there are a few trotting mares who have been put to pacers for good results (I’ve blogged on Googoo GaaGaa and Blitzthemcalder as examples), but very few have gone in the other direction except where a pacing-bred mare turned out to be a natural and good trotter. So it is not something I would consider at all. However it raises an interesting point – that the maternal line of The Blue Lotus is rich with good trotting blood, and not that far back. Her great granddam is Now And Zen, a Chiola Hanover mare. The family of Zenith has left both trotting and pacing branches. And of course Zenterfold’s sire In The Pocket brings more excellent trotting blood via Tar Heel and Direct Scooter. There’s a locker-full of Volomite and Star’s Pride and Scotland blood there. But let’s pretend I was choosing a trotting sire for The Blue Lotus – I would not choose Crazed, Elizabeth, even though he was such an excellent horse and I am sure will be a great sire. I would go for something that resonates with the best trotting blood my mare’s family can offer – which for me would be looking at trotters with Chiola Hanover and Noble Victory (Star’s Pride/Scotland) blood, so I’d probably go to Muscles Yankee, Muscles Hill, Skyvalley, or even Continentalman.
Once again thanks to all participants in the great Match My Mare race.
The PDF of all entries that met the criteria is posted here (in the Articles page of my blog).
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