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Number of sires represented at yearling sales

January 13, 2013 by b4breeding

Warning – this blog is LONG – but an important topic. So hope you will hang in there!

I want to go back to the topic of sire representation at this year’s New Zealand yearling sales.

Three things to make clear:

  1. This is not a criticism of Bettor’s Delight, who is a fantastic sire.
  2. I realise many progeny never pass through the sales. But as I’ve said before, yearling sales represent the most commercial end of the breeding spectrum, often the most successful families providing a significant percentage of top racehorses, and therefore sales trends are important.
  3. There are a number of factors creating this situation, not just one. Other important factors are the siring competition in the relevant year, and the growing perception of Bettor’s Delight’s mega-sire status (in part a self-fulfilling prophecy).

I’ve been doing a bit more number crunching to see if my ‘gut feeling’ about dominance is significant or not.

I’ve made more comparisons with other years – using the 2012 year when I did detail analysis of damsires at the sales as my baseline. Hence I have picked 2007 (5 years prior) and 2002 (10 years prior) as sales to look at in more detail, as well as the current year (2013) of course.

There will always be some dominant sires, and a smattering of sires that have very few representatives, either because they were so expensive or unusual, or because they are not commercial.

My main concern is the bit in the middle where a trend becomes so dominant that sires represented by 10+ yearlings or 20+ yearlings are virtually squeezed out by one or two very dominant top sires. This can have impacts on the careers of some very good sires, and make it extremely hard for new sires to get a slice of the action (particularly because New Zealand breeders are often very cautious about new sires, unlike the North American situation where hot-of-the-track sires are usually popular and given some of the best mares).

Why have I made the mark of 10+ yearlings? Generally, a sire will need to have 10+ yearlings across the 3 days of sales to provide a display of his types from a range of families as well as staking his claim in the minds of buyers and optimising his chances of having progeny appear in the higher profile stakes series. At 20+ yearling, the sire is established or has is a new sire that has been welcomed with open arms (or should I say open mares!) and that is a healthy level of sales yearlings to be offering – a buffer against sudden death in the arena of fickle fashion trends.

More recently, the South Island sales were split into Day 1 and Day 2, and the perception of sires and yearlings can be different depending on whether they were selected for the more prestigious Day 1 or the more ‘good value for less money’ Day 2 sale.

The analysis is summarised below. But first I want to discuss why we’ve got here.

I believe the 2013 statistics, and the potential continuing dominance of Bettor’s Delight yearlings at the sales over the next few years, should give us incentive to consider what measures might mitigate the negative impacts on our breeding industry. In a recent thought-provoking article in NZ Harness Weekly, David Phillips raised the issue and mentioned voluntary or set limit on stallions’ books. In a small and shrinking breeding pool such as New Zealand’s, I believe this is a sensible option. It is done overseas – recognising that “the market” does not necessarily respond in time or get the right (pricing) signals to self-correct over-dominance.

I hope NZ Standardbred Breeders Association will be looking hard at this issue and discussing it with industry players, particularly the studs. While it is natural for commercial owners and operators to “make hay while the sunshines”, it is up to breeders and their representatives to assess what the wider results might be.

However let’s take a quick look at some of the other factors leading to Bettor’s Delight’s dominance in 2013 – which Woodlands Stud had no immediate influence over.

First, the foals born in 2011 (the yearlings of 2013) are one of  Bettor’s Delight’s biggest crop, but not the biggest or only big crop he has had. In 2007 (271) and 2009 (243) were actually bigger crops than 2011 (232). But what has happened in the meantime? Two things: His main rival Christian Cullen’s live foal numbers have been decreasing – 2007 (154), 2009 (124) and 2011 (73).  And Bettor’s Delight’s reputation has been growing hugely. It is almost a self-fulfilling prophecy because: sheer weight of numbers by a good sire = a higher percentage of races won = trainers and owners liking them more = commercial yearling sales breeders opting for what will be popular.

Second, some sires struggled to challenge Bettor’s Delight, due to breeder perception, caution about new sires, disappointing siring results,  or the cheaper “non-yearling sales” market that the sire has been aimed at. Examples of sires who could have stepped up again but are struggling to for a range of reasons  (with live foals born 2011): McArdle (61), Elsu (92), Grinfromeartoear (34), Lis Mara (38). Examples of newer sires needing to get a foothold in the market are Gotta Go Cullect (94), Gotta Go Cullen (38), Santanna Blue Chip (52), Jereme’s Jet (43) and Art Offical (49). Real Desire is exciting enough to have a real chance to shine, but his 2011 crop was only 37. Even Art Major’s crop was just 87, even though he was getting the big thumbs up in Australia.

So Bettor’s Delight has hit his straps at the exact time that other sires are struggling to break the 50 or 100 foals barrier given such a low number of New Zealand breeding mares to compete for and such strong preference by commercial breeders for one or two top sires.

Third, the economy stagnated and that hits breeders and buyers in the pocket. The attractiveness of harness racing is also struggling against other entertainment and investment options. It’s a high risk industry, and in that situation breeders often choose (if they breed at all) the proven and safe over the new and exciting. As I’ve said before, I think this is a strategy that may well end up “biting a few bums” at the sale, but time will tell, and I will certainly not be laughing if it does.

Notes on the stats below:

  • I haven’t had time to further break this down to pacing and trotting sires/lots. So it is a general scan, not a micro analysis.
  • I am taking numbers on basis of lots entered in the catalogue (regardless of withdrawals).
  • And there will be other yearling sales in the inbetween or previous years that may well show quite differing results. I’m just trying to get a feel for where this year sits and what trend there might be.

The figures for each year go like this:

  1. Total number of lots
  2. Total number of individual sires represented
  3. Number of sires represented by 10+ yearlings.
  4. Number of sires represented by 20+ yearlings.
  5. Number of sires represented by 50+ yearlings.
  6. Top sire, number of yearlings and as percentage of all lots.
  7. Breakdown of number of sires represented on each day.

2013  

  • 515
  • 56
  • 14
  • 6
  • 1
  • Bettor’s Delight, 107, 20.7%
  • Australasian Classic (Karaka)  30
  • Premier Day 1 (Christchurch)  32
  • Premier Day 2 (Christchurch)  44

2012

  • 592
  • 43
  • 18
  • 9
  • 4
  • Mach Three, 70, 11.9%
  • Australasian Classic (Karaka)  32
  • Premier Day 1 (Christchurch)  27
  • Premier Day 2 (Christchurch)  37 

2007

  • 574
  • 40
  • 17
  • 11
  • 1
  • Christian Cullen, 55, 9.5%
  • Australasian Classic (Karaka)  30
  • Premier  (Christchurch)  39

2002

  • 515
  • 48
  • 15
  • 5
  • 2
  • In The Pocket, 89, 17.3%
  • Australasian Classic (Karaka)  32
  • Premier  (Christchurch)  40

So the most similar situation out of these is in 2002 when In The Pocket and Holmes Hanover were dominating the numbers (Falcon Seelster had been temporarily unavailable as a sire). However interesting to note that in 2002 there were another 4 sires hovering at 18 or 19 yearlings, just outside that significant 20+ category but still real players as sires – they were Christian Cullen, Sands A Flyin, Life Sign and the trotting sire Sundon.

In comparison, this year (2013) there is only one sire (McArdle, at 17) who is even close to reaching the 20+ category.

It’s interesting to note that the number of catalogued lots for 2013 and 2002 are exactly the same, but Bettor’s Delight’s dominance at 20.7% is greater than In The Pocket’s at 17.3%.

Another point – the number of individual sires represented this year is the largest by far (56) – but many of these sires may have only 1 or 2 yearlings in the sale. Take the 2013 Australasian Classic: there are 30 individual sires listed but 19 of those have only 1 or 2 yearlings to represent them on that day.

My real concern is the lack of the ‘middle’ commercial sires in enough numbers to really help sustain their careers – and ensure good variety in our future pool of racehorses and broodmares.

 

Posted in Harness racing, Standardbred breeding | Tagged , | 2 Comments »

Lot 271 Franco Texas – very current Nevele R

January 12, 2013 by b4breeding

Here’s an interesting lot on Premier Day 2. He’s a colt by Changeover, with McArdle as his damsire and Badlands Hanover as his grandamsire, all of which are Nevele R stallions, and very current ones too.

That makes him, by my flick through the catalogue, the only pacer to have a grandamsire who is in the same catalogue as a sire. (No, have now checked and Falcon Seelster and Sundon both meet the same criteria, although Falson Seelster died some years ago and is only available via frozen semen. But Badlands is by far the most “recent” of these sires, with his first crop here born 2001 compared to Sundon’s in 1993).

But it is exceptionally quick generation turnover mainly due to the recent dams in this family not having many foals, and the filly foals they did have were only lightly tried or unraced before heading to the breeding barn.

The 4th dam is completely NOT like that. Tempest Tiger (born 1975)was a good racemare with 7 wins under her girth strap and a 1.58.5 mark to boot. She won the NZ Messenger Championship for 4yos in 1979 for owner PK Ryder with Jack Smolenski in the bike. And then she had group winning sons Franco Tiger and OK Tiger and several other very competitive horses, and as a result bagged the 1995-96 Broodmare of the Year award. That was a record of 12 foals, 9 to race and 9 winners. She was owned by Franco Breeding Ltd from 1990, and Spreydon Lodge from 1993, but became very hard to get into foal as she got older and died in 2004.

This is her great-grand-daughter’s first foal. Franco Texas is quite an outcross – has few close doubleups – just a 5x5x6x7x7 reference to Meadow Skipper and 3×5 to Direct Scooter, and many of those are running through siring lines.

However there’s a nice coincidence that Tempest Tiger is a daughter of the less well known sire Tiger Wave (a rare sire son of Shadow Wave), and I talked about Tiger Wave in more detail in a previous blog re Justa Tiger’s progeny at these sales.  His dam Tigerish was a mare by Tiger Wave.  Interesting that Tiger Wave has left two mares who have gone on to create such strong families.

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Different approach deserves success – Lots 206 and 217 Premier Day 2

January 6, 2013 by b4breeding

These are just two of the 12 yearlings by Justa Tiger that Highview Standardbred’s Dave and Allan Clark have put in Day 2 of the Premier Yearling Sale in Christchurch.

They represent an approach and attitude that I find refreshing and courageous.

I’ve blogged previously about the yearling sales concentration of Bettor’s Delight and Art Major yearlings and low numbers from many sires particularly newer sires. There’s also a lack of newer damsires coming through.

The cautious, safe approach by breeders and by PGG Wrightson meant my eyes were starting to glaze over as I turned the catalogue pages for the Australasian Classic and Premier Day 1. Ditto, ditto, ditto. Is this where that irritating axiom ‘breed the best to the best” leads us? Into a boring box?

It was only when I got to the Premier Day 2 catalogue pages, that my interest really sparked.

Why?  Because hidden down in the green pages is a much more refreshing array of sires and damsires. A total of 44 sires are represented on Premier Day 2 compared with 32 on Day 1 and 30 at Karaka.  And they are from a wider range of mares (in terms of damsires).

Thank goodness breeders like Highview Standardbreds are thinking outside the square box!

Take these two lots from Highview as an example.

Lot 217 is a colt by Justa Tiger out of an Island Fantasy mare – and before that puts you off, the mare happens to be the dam of the very promising Johnny Fox, and a half sister to Highview Badlands (9 wins) and Oreti Beach (5 wins here plus 20 in America). The yearling’s grandam is the 8 win mare Highview Rose,  an OK Bye mare.  And the great-grandam has 6 winners from her 9 foals.  So that’s a very solid foundation.

The result is a  nice colt with a pedigree that looks very different from almost anything else in the book.

Justa Tiger filly from Highview Mystery

Lot 206 filly out of Highview Mystery as a foal

Lot 206 is a chestnut filly by a Road Machine mare, and Allan Clark describes her as “one of the nicest yearlings we’ve had out of any sire”. Again, the family is strong enough to support a more commercial choice of sire – if these mares had gone to Art Major or Bettor’s Delight they probably would be joining the many from those sires in the Day 1 pages.

But Allan Clark sees things differently. He’s backing the stallion that Highview has committed to, Justa Tiger, by putting many of Highview’s best mares to him – and then entering them in the yearling sales.

Most of these mares are from solid, consistent families with a good amount of black type dotted through. What I find refreshing is the range of damsires. The damsires for those 12 Justa Tiger yearlings are: Falcon Seelster, Badlands Hanover (2), Bettor’s Delight (2), Road Machine, Island Fantasy, Union Guy, What’s Next, Vance Hanover, Courage Under Fire, and Presidential Ball.

The only lot by Justa Tiger that made Day 1 is in fact the same family as Lot 217 – it’s a colt from a Presidential Ball mare who is a half sister to Lot 217’s Island Fantasy mare – and Allan describes him as an ‘outstanding’ type.

Highview is aiming at a very realistic end of the market – “If we average $10,000 at the end of the sales I will be happy and will have covered our costs,” he says. The more important aim for Allan is to get Justa Tiger’s yearlings spread far and wide, into the hands of trainers where they can prove their real worth.

For Allan, this new approach to the yearling sales is a welcome relief from the pressure to commit to expensive sires and still make a profit. “I feel like I am off the treadmill.” He believes some breeders are ‘committing suicide’ going to Bettor’s Delight and others, as buyers will have so many of them to choose from.

Allan knows the Day 2 buyers will be looking mainly for type and value for money.  Justa Tiger can tick those boxes – and of course he is a son of the great Christian Cullen.

“Justa Tiger carried himself like Christian Cullen in his races, and his conformation is great. He was bought and raced by Lincoln Farms, and they are very particular about correct conformation.

“That’s coming through in his yearlings, they are lovely through the hocks, big nostrils, good shoulder,  correct feet, athletic and some of them are almost thoroughbred in their head,” Allan says.

“If someone saw them in a paddock and didn’t know, they’d easily think they were Christian Cullens. They are that nice.”

We agree that ‘the eye of the beholder’ is often influenced by preconceived ideas!

In terms of temperament, Justa Tiger was a real professional. Trainer Ray Green described him as having “the best attitude and work ethic of any horse I’ve been involved with”. He may have changed careers from racehorse to sire, but the attitude is the same – Allan Clark calls him a ‘real gentleman’ to manage as a stallion.

Justa Tiger was a racehorse who hit his peak as a 3yo before bonechips in his knee really curtailed his career. His dam was the great Tigerish, winner of many group races, a speedy 2yo who developed into a tough mare – she won almost half a million dollars, and founded a very successful family for breeders Pam and Lindsay Turner.  Her bottom maternal line family is well described in the formal advert/pedigree page, but the sire Tiger Wave won’t be well known to many. He’s a son of Shadow Wave (whose heritage is as a damsire, notl sire of sires) out of the mare Diana Streak. That makes Tiger Wave a brother to Dottie Shadow, the dam of Oil Burner (sire of No Nukes). Diana Streak was no slouch, taking a record of 1:58.4 as a 4yo in the early 1950s.  Oil Burner was exported to Australia in the late 1980s and concluded his career as a sire with 1,077 foals and 279 winners in 2:00 and 29 in 1:55. He died at age 30 in 2003 in Victoria, Australia. But while there may be mares in Australia with Oil Burner in their maternal lines, that’s a long stretch in breeding terms and a long way from Justa Tiger who stands in Southland New Zealand.

As Allan Clark knows, it will be a major challenge just to get mares from outside of the Southland region!

For future breeding, Allan suggests Holmes Hanover mares could be a good cross, which was the match with Tigerish that produced Justa Tiger’s outstanding half sister Tiger Turner.

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding | Tagged , , | 2 Comments »

First off the blocks is Angus Fogg

January 2, 2013 by b4breeding

The first 2013 yearling sales lot I want to look at is Lot 69 at the Australasian Classic sale (Karaka), named Angus Fogg after the New Zealand V8 racing car driver.

This is a young colt I’ve been keeping my eye on – literally.

If I look out the window from where I sit at my computer, there he is. I’ve been watching his development with interest.

Angus Fogg with Angus Fogg

Angus Fogg and partner Tracy visit mare Sun Isa and young foal Angus Fogg at Breckon Farms.

Angus Fogg is the latest offering by Isa Lodge partner Kym Kearns.

He’s a half brother to Flying Isa, who was a big, bold colt, very much in the mould of his dam, the Sundon mare Sun Isa and her dam, the Count Bay mare Isa Countessa.

This time the colt has taken after his sire, Angus Hall, in terms of type.

And that’s something Kym appreciates:

He’s an athletic type.  He’s a 4 December foal, but you may be surprised by his physical forwardness. The breed has a tendency to be slightly turned out in the front, but this never stopped Flying Isa – or indeed the great Sundon (the dam’s sire).  What I would say about his legs is that they are strong and really push his movement forward in a lovely motion. I like him.

From a breeding perspective, the main interest lies in the fact that it’s the first crop of Angus Hall here. There are only two at the sales (this colt and a filly at Karaka, and a colt from Landoras Special at the Premier Day One sale in Christchurch).  Of course Angus Hall has only been available via frozen semen. His first crop of 18 foals came from 27 mares served – a not bad 72% fertility. He got about the same number of mares the next year. Given what a class act he is as a sire, it would be tragic if he wasn’t supported enough to retain his services for a few more years.

Lot 69 at Karaka has a pedigree that creates some very interesting double ups to one of trotting’s golden families – Goddess Hanover and her daughters Arpege and Cassin Hanover – via the Count Bay connection on the yearling’s maternal lines. The dam of Count Bay, Baynie, is a full sister to world champion trotter and sire Ayres, and both are progeny of Arpege. The only other sires we’ve had access to in New Zealand with these bloodlines has been Straphanger (via his damsire Texas) and more recently Thanksgiving (who has Ayres as his grandamsire).

Angus Hall has the connection twice, on his sire line and his maternal line.

You can read the details of this (and photos we took of the colt this morning) on this blogsite page.

Posted in Standardbred breeding | Tagged , , | 2 Comments »

Lots of interest to breeders at the yearling sales

January 2, 2013 by b4breeding

Over the next few weeks I will post up a series of blogs looking at some of lots in the Sale of the Stars – New Zealand Yearling Sales 2013 which I believe are of interest from a breeding perspective.

I did this series last year, and my focus then was on yearlings by new damsires – I’ll check on that again, but won’t do the same full analysis of yearling sale damsires as trends take a bit longer to show up than year to year.

I will also look at some other lots and find out more from their breeders/vendors about the reasons behind the matches.

Along the way, I’m happy to have other people’s observations about overall trends at the sales or particular lots, from a breeding point of view.

You can add those as a comment to the blogs, or send direct to me at my bee.raglan@xtra.co.nz email.

 

Posted in Harness racing, Pedigree matching, Standardbred breeding | Tagged , | Leave a Comment »

A winning filly from In The Pocket’s last crop

January 1, 2013 by b4breeding

What a great day of harness racing at Alexander Park, Auckland yesterday – Summer Cup, 3yo boys’ sales series final, 3yo fillies sires stakes final and silver, and a group 1 trot, and one of the best supporting cards I’ve seen for a long time.

But what caught my breeder’s eye was a filly at the other race meeting yesterday, a low key affair at Rangiora – and a 3yo fillies maiden race to boot!  It was won by Sara Holley, a daughter by one of our greatest sires, In The Pocket, from his last crop of just 5 live foals in 2009.  In The Pocket died in 2010, the year after Sara Holley was born.  None of the other 4 foals from that crop have made it to the races – yet (all are registered).

In The Pocket, sire of 3yo Sara Holley

In The Pocket, sire of 3yo Sara Holley

Sara Holley is no slouch! For only two goes at the races she has chalked up a second and a first, and looks to have plenty of potential. She won in very good style. The filly was bred and is owned by M D Pierson, Mrs M W Pierson, Mrs J R Pierson, and trained and driven by Robbie Holmes. Her half sister is the Falcon Seelster mare Eleanor Roosevelt, who has 6 wins and $35,000 to date. The maternal line goes back to Sakantula.

Interestingly, In The Pocket  had only one representative at the Auckland Trotting Club meeting, although his siring sons and his broodmare daughters were plentiful. The 4yo black gelding Orl Black, an In The Pocket son of Cracker Kate (who is half sister to Christian Cullen) bookend the day for In The Pocket by coming last in his race, although the whole field was within 4 lengths of the winner. As a 2yo, Orl Black was the winner of the Welcome Stakes.

That 2009 and second-to-last crop of 22 foals by In The Pocket also includes the very nice Buy Chevron Direct (7 wins) and Hot Shot Anvil as winners. To date, 10 of the 22 have started in a race.

While some may believe that older stallions have lost their potency, history shows that class will prevail. It is probably more the case that better mares will move on to newer and more currently commercial sires. But given the right mares and continuing fertility, there is no reason why success can’t continue.

Congratulations to the Piersons. And a big tip o’ the hat to the incredible influence of In The Pocket, right to his very last crop.

Posted in Standardbred breeding | Tagged | 3 Comments »

Trump Casino with Tintin In America

December 30, 2012 by b4breeding

A recent query asked what I thought about this cross: Tintin In America with a Trump Casino mare. It is an interesting question as Trump Casino is a son of Falcon Seelster and McArdle (sire of Tintin In America is also a son of Falcon Seelster).

Basically my response is this: unless I knew more about the mare, particularly her maternal lines, her conformation, ability/attributes, I really would not want to make a recommendation in a particular case. Even then, I would rather you work it out!

That is what b4breeding is all about – encouraging you as the breeder to take what you know of your mares and families (because you know far better than me) and to make informed or at least thoughtful decisions. “Look b4 you leap” – and that is not a warning, it’s an encouragement to dive in, but at least to be aware of the risks and the waters…

Trump Casino is an Australian sire I know little of, so won’t pretend to have that close up knowledge of how he is perceived as a sire or (more importantly) how he really performs as a sire or damsire. I have had a quick look at his stats, but not enough to really understand where he sits in terms of current performance and perception. He’s not in the top tier though. The sire and broodmare pool in New Zealand, where I am, and in Australia (where the question comes from and where Trump Casino stands) is quite different. I don’t have the resources to be very knowledgeable about Australian breeding. But the principles for breeders making decisions are going to be the similar.

Here’s what I do know – because I bred and raised him:

With Tintin In America, as I have already stated in a past blog,  I would not exclude Falcon Seelster mares for him. That is because Falcon is such an outcross sire, and that where he would sit twice in such a pedigree would not really worry me in terms of the resulting foal.

Falcon Seelster is a sire that Tintin’s wider family has mixed well with previously (Elsu, Falcor, De Lovely etc). So that would be a plus factor in a Tintin In America/Trump Casino mare cross.

Personally, I don’t think McArdle (Tintin’s sire) has a lot of Falcon Seelster influence in him. I think he may be driven by the genes he got from his dam lines rather than from his dad. The Falcon Seelster factor (his click with the family previously) was not a big factor in my selection of McArdle for Tintin’s dam Zenterfold.

Add to that, Tintin In America is strongly rooted in his own very good maternal family, and may well be just as much influenced by those connections as by his granddad. Keep that firmly in mind when you are looking at mares for Tintin!

So to summarise – I would be relaxed and happy about mixing Falcon Seelster back to Tintin in the maternal lines or sire lines of mares.

Trump Casino appears from his record to have done supremely well as a 3yo with 21 starts for 9 wins and 10 seconds, and took a 1:49.2 record as a 4yo.  That seems to have been in Kentucky, which is not a state with strong standardbred siring prospects. His maternal family is not familiar. He must have been a sound horse, carrying on racing until 8yo. A nice horse! Tough and durable, strong and consistent 3, 4 and 5yo seasons. I love these type of horses. His dam Laker’s Fortune was a good race mare, earning over $300,00.  I was interested to find Trump Casino’s grandamsire Adios Boy was one of the first 2yos to break the 2 min mile barrier, and Adios Boy appears in the bottom line pedigrees of both Camluck and Presidential Ball.  Trump Casino’s damsire Fortune Teller was a son of Governor Skipper, a Little Brown Jug winning son of Meadow Skipper – neither of them carried on the Meadow Skipper line to any extent but they were good horses.

Call me biased (but I have absolutely no financial interest in Tintin as a sire) I do think he deserves a chance to show what he can do as a sire. In previous blogs I’ve given lots of information about Tintin and his family and my breeding decisions around that (See the blogs It’s business time, the one on Shadow Wave, on Tintin Are you looking for speed and Tintin’s fertility 90% and the page on Destination Moon for example). So hopefully some of that will be helpful in deciding if Tintin is a good sire for your mare.

Remember! You need to make the decision first about what qualities your mare is bringing to the table – what she offers, and then what she might need. A sire cannot provide a miracle, only a shot of semen filled with a number of  genetic options that may or may not be compatible with your mare.

Fun, isn’t it!!

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Big Is Good – a yearling sale love story

December 26, 2012 by b4breeding

It was almost 2 years ago, Friday 18 February 2011, parade day at the Australasian Classic Yearling Sale, Karaka.

I was leaning on the parade ring fence, watching a few of them stretching  their legs and get used to the place.

And then I saw him.

He didn’t have a lot number on him. I had no idea who he was or what his breeding was. Goofy, big, good natured. Full of character.

I was smitten.

“He’s nice,” I called to the handler. “What lot number?” “Number 6 I think,” was the reply.

In the formal parade, I checked Lot 6 – yes, it was him. Big Is Good. On sale from Croon Bloodstock. Bay Colt, Art Major-Twice As Good.

Big Is Good yearling sale

Big Is Good leaves the parade ring at Karaka’s Australasian Classic Yearling Sale 2011

I watched him walk around again, and made a note in my catalogue: “Lovely, gawky young thing. Tall.” I fell in love all over again. I even took this photo of him. He didn’t make my last cut for my 2011 yearling sales virtual stable, mainly because I thought he would need a lot of time to mature, but I’ve been following him as best I can.

Today, at 1.19pm Big Is Good makes his debut at the races, after showing up well enough in his qualifying trial. I’ll be watching.

Twice As Good’s family is one I hold in high regard. Stunningly consistent, often underrated at the sales, the family keeps throwing up good performers from a wide range of sires.

Twice As Good was a decent racehorse herself and was bred mainly by Steve and Anne Phillips (for Twice As Hot by In The Pocket, Trelise by Holmes Hanover and Waitfornoone by Albert Albert) and then by Robert Death for St Barts by Island Fantasy (one of the few Island Fantasies that really showed big ability), before moving to Croon Bloodstock. She’s then left the good filly Fight Fire With Fire by Artiscape (again, a sire many have struggled with), the Christian Cullen filly Goodlookinggirl who is now owned by Breckon Bloodstock, and more recently the Bettor’s Delight colt Mark Dennis who is showing up nicely. That sort of production record indicates a mare who has a very good genetic structure herself.

The mare to date has left far more fillies than colts, so it must have been with some relief and hope that Big Is Good by Art Major was foaled and aimed at the yearling sales.

But at auction time, few bids were made and he went for a lowly $5000 (although I noted $10,000 on the day, but maybe that was the auctioneer trying to get a bid). Why?

It was announced he was a rig – but does that really count for much if the product is a big strapping Art Major colt?

I think it was more his type – he looked happy, soft, lanky, like a gawky teenager.  Maybe there was something else amiss that I didn’t spot. But now he’s at the races, and in hindsight he was a real bargain.

PGG Wrightson’s Kerry Shaw is one of the owners, with L J Smith, Mrs E A Whitelaw.

I wish them all the best with Big Is Good, the goofy boy who stole my heart.

Note: Just checked on trainer Cran Dalgety’s website for his comments about Big Is Good and a recent photo – and his chances in the race debut today.

Further note: Sat back, loomed up, sat parked, trucked on but got passed by a few. 5th. You wouldn’t be too disappointed with that run unless you’d thrown the house at him – rather than a little one each way bet like me; he’ll be improved with that.

Breeding note: For those interested, check out Australasian 2013 sale Lot 110, a Bettor’s Delight colt from a Artiscape daughter of Twice As Good (and therefore a sister to Fight Fire With Fire). The family’s record is well displayed there.  He’ll probably get a wee bit more than $5000, me thinks!

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Future breeding trends in New Zealand

December 22, 2012 by b4breeding

My last couple of blogs have brought some interesting responses sent directly to me rather than posted up.

But let me summarise and also add in some thought-provoking comments from Ken MacKay of Premier Pedigrees (premierpedigrees@gmail.com) who is also the agent for Pepper Tree Farm’s Rock n Roll Heaven, Sportswriter and Roll With Joe this current breeding season, so has an interesting perspective on market trends.

A combination of falling breeding numbers spread among a wide range of sires, plus a large number of breeders going to one proven sire (Bettor’s Delight) is going to have an impact downstream in several ways.

And there are some other trends such as the improved breeding stock (mares and sires) in Australia, which will provide New Zealand with additional challenges in future years.

But as the saying goes, challenges can bring opportunities – in my view, the chance for locally bred sires to shine and to continue the point of difference in our gene pool which has been a strength before and may be again. That’s taking a fairly long-horizon view. The next few years will be a lot trickier!

Comments from blog readers on the ‘saturation’ by Bettor’s Delight, especially in sales yearlings on offer, point out that Woodlands Stud has chosen not to temper demand through pricing, nor has PGG Wrightson taken responsibility for evening things out a bit more at the two top sales days. However you have to remember that these are commercial companies looking after their own interests.

The people that make final decisions are breeders, individually. Perhaps, due to some risk aversion, many breeders have made ‘safe’ choices that are leading us into a bit of a cul de sac if we are not careful. As Ken points out, those studs that are offering top imported/frozen semen sires will not keep offering their product here if the market appears not to want them or too small to give a financial return.

It is not too late for some serious thinking,  collectively and as individuals, to avoid the ironic situation where being ‘risk adverse’ in fact opens us to a greater risk – that we will over-supplied in our own market and cut ourselves out of others.

Following are some of Ken’s observations which I enjoy –  this is thoughtful debate and discussion, with a good dose of passion, which is exactly what we need!

I heard a few breeders say this season that we are “spoilt for choice”. Whilst that may be the case this season, I believe it can disappear just as fast as it came.

Last season Empire Stallions made about a dozen of their stallions available to NZ breeders including the likes of Modern Art, Artistic Fella, Kenneth J, Village Jolt etc, but between them ( excl. Rocknroll Hanover ) they could muster a sum total of 21 mares. This season Ron Burrell could offer only 3 to NZ breeders and he had to fight tooth and nail to make Four Starzzz Shark available again. Talking to Ron the other day he has about 16 bookings to him this season so doesn’t know if he will win that battle again.

I myself tried to get all 5 Pepper Tree stallions available to NZ breeders but couldn’t get Aces N’ Sevens or Always A Virgin  (he currently sits in 2nd place on the New Seasons Sires premiership in N. America behind only Somebeachsomewhere) as there was not enough “margin” given the average cost of semen transport per mare to warrant their availability into NZ.

With poor numbers this season to USA horses of the year in Sportswriter (20) and Roll With Joe ( just over a dozen ) it will be a real struggle convincing the Australian studs that is economically viable to send their semen over the Tasman next season just as Ron will have difficulty with Four Starzzz Shark.

Where does this leave us then other than supporting NZ Studs with home-grown talent? Just as you say “re-invent the colonial”.

With the top end we will be just a nursery for Australian buyers, we hope. Or will they need to come to NZ any more, as they have secured the best bloodlines of our NZ families over the past two decades and now they have direct access to the best N. American stallions?

Problem is the Australian based Studs have now taken the high ground with the top stallions and have upgraded their broodmare gene pool (thanks to NZ ) that the time will soon be here where they don’t need to come over to NZ to buy “superior” stock as APG will be fully meeting that need without the additional expense.

The likes of Emilio Rosati recently buying in Harrisburg sends an alarming message to the NZ breeding industry.

The gulf could just become wider than the Tasman Sea and very quickly too!

There is groundswell speculation that in the near future that those big studs that are left in Australia and NZ will be purchasing mainly local product off the racetracks. Top horse owners are aware of this. The evidence was right there in the 2012 NZ Trotting Cup with 10 of the starters being entires (and this excluded others such as Sir Lincoln). So a move back to “colonial” days in the modern era!!  Who knows but the alarm bells are certainly ringing.

In my next few blogs, I’ll write more on these issues and implications – always happy to have readers post comments directly under here, or to me by email at bee.raglan@xtra.co.nz but please note if you want to be quoted or not on the blog.

I’ll also start looking at some of the interesting lots, from a breeding perspective, at the 2013 New Zealand yearling sales.

It’s great to have just a few extra days holiday to do some researching and writing. We have been exceptionally busy in my ‘normal’ job and it has been a hard year in some ways, with my Mum passing away just a month ago (about the same time as that great mum Rich N Elegant). I do try to blog about once a week, sometimes its more of a cluster then a gap. I do appreciate the positive feedback you send me.

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Is more Bettor better?

December 15, 2012 by b4breeding

When I opened the Sale of the Stars catalogue for the Australasian Classic and the New Zealand Premier yearling sales 2013, I got a shock. I sort of expected what I saw, but the extent of it still took me by surprise.

It wasn’t just the dominance in numbers of Bettor’s Delight yearlings; it was the lack of significant numbers from many very good and newer sires who, if they don’t get to showcase progeny at the sales, have a much harder job to do on the track to keep their names in the spotlight.

It’s a good illustration of how decision making by individual breeders can produce an effect that has a much wider impact downstream on the marketplace for yearlings, the likelihood of new sires being available here,  and the depth and width of our future breeding pool of mares.

But before worrying about “are we breeding ourselves into a new corner”, I wanted to have a look at the not-too-distant past and see to what extent this has happened before, with no long term ill effects – indeed some very positive outcomes?

Bear with me while I jot down some of the stats I’ve found, comparing these 2013 yearling sales with sales in 2001 (when In The Pocket and Falcon Seelster were so dominant), and the 2006,  2007 and 2008 sales when the biggest crops of Christian Cullen were yearlings. I’m not getting too precise, and the yearlings offered don’t take into account withdrawals, but the figures are close enough to paint a picture.

I’ve bolded any occasion where one sire’s yearlings are 20% or more of a sale – because this is the level where I believe (looking at those sales) dominance starts to dramatically reduce the numbers that other sires have on offer.

2001 New Zealand Yearling Sales

Total yearlings in catalogue = 534
North Island – 163, In The Pocket 34 = 20.8%, Falcon Seelster 22 = 13.4%
South Island – 371, In The Pocket 68 = 18.3%, Falcon Seelster 68 = 18.3%
Other sires with good numbers at both sales Holmes Hanover, Soky’s Atom, Fake Left
Of total yearlings – In the Pocket 102 = 19%, Falcon Seelster 90 = 16.8%

2006 New Zealand Yearling Sales

Total yearlings in catalogue = 567
North Island – 169, Christian Cullen 37 = 21%, next biggest In the Pocket 24 = 14%
Other sires’ yearlings with good numbers Presidential Ball, Falcon Seelster, Pacific Rocket (each 7%), Mach Three and Live Or Die (4% each)
South Island – 398,Christian Cullen 49 = 12%, next biggest Falcon Seelster 45 = 11.3%
Other sires’ yearlings with good numbers In The Pocket, Live Or Die and Mach Three (each 7-9%)
Of total sales yearlings – Christian Cullen 86 = 15% , Falcon Seelster 58 = 10.2%, In The Pocket 55 = 9.7%

2007 New Zealand Yearling Sales

Total yearlings in catalogue = 576
North Island – 162, Christian Cullen 26 = 16%, next biggest Presidential Ball 22 = 13.5%
Other sires’ yearlings with good numbers Dream Away 13 = 8%, Badlands Hanover and In The Pocket (each 6%)
South Island – 414, Christian Cullen 67 = 16%, next biggest Badlands Hanover 34 = 8.2%, Red River Hanover 32 = 7.7%
Other sires’ yearlings with good numbers Falcon Seelster 28 = 6.7%, Courage Under Fire 28 =6.7%,  Live Or die 25 = 6%, In The Pocket 19 = 4.5%
Of total sales yearlings – Christian Cullen 93 = 16%
(And out of interest Bettor’s Delight total sales yearlings in 2007 was 14, his first real commercial crop to the sales)

2008 New Zealand Yearling Sales

Total yearlings in catalogue 700
North Island 201, Christian Cullen 29 = 14.4%
South Island 499, Christian Cullen 46 = 9.2%
Of total sales yearlings – Christian Cullen 75 = 16%

2013 New Zealand Yearling Sales

Total yearlings in catalogue = 515
North Island – 180, Bettor’s Delight 56 = 31%, Art Major 22 = 12%, Christian Cullen 17 = 9.4%, next biggest Mach Three 16 = 8.8%
South Island (Day 1) – 183 , Bettor’s Delight 44 = 24%, Art Major 24 = 13%, Christian Cullen 19 = 10.3%, next biggest Changeover 15 = 8%
South Island (Day 2) – 152 , Changeover 20 = 13% (Bettor’s Delight 7 = 4.6%)
Of total sales yearlings – Bettor’s Delight 107 = 20%, Art Major 47 = 9%, Changeover 39 = 7.5%

Closest to Bettor’s Delight’s dominance at the yearling sales was in 2001 (In The Pocket) and 2006 (Christian Cullen), but in both cases their dominance was tempered by good representation from a number of other sires.

In 2013 we have an extraordinary situation at the North Island (Karaka) sales were almost one third of yearlings offered are by Bettor’s Delight. And at the Premier Day 1 sale in Christchurch a quarter are sired by Bettor’s Delight.

The implications for the vendor are huge. The pressure is now on them to produce absolute top quality Bettor’s Delight yearlings, because buyers have such a range to choose from and they will be able to pick and pay optimum price only for those they perceive as being a desirable type or with a very strong pedigree. As happened with some of the larger Christian Cullen yearling sale crops (although his service fee was usually higher than Bettor’s Delight) there may be many vendors whose profit margin might not beas big as they hoped. The marketplace may well self-correct over the next few years when even bigger crops of Bettor’s Delight are coming through the sales, and breeders move to other sires with the aim of being less ‘one of a crowd’ and more having a point of difference.

In the meantime, however, I am more concerned about the paucity of yearling sale representation by some top quality or newer sires commercial sires. If they don’t get their chance to showcase yearlings at the top sales (in particularly the Australasian Classic at Karaka and Day 1 at the Premier) their profile for the next breeding season is lower.  Buyers of their yearlings also have a hard job to do chasing the Bettor’s Delights in the Sales Series races, which involve quite a commitment of payments.

Mach Three’s representation is lower than I expected, and so is American Ideal’s and Badland Hanover’s.  Jereme’s Jet and Lis Mara racehorses are starting to show up more as 3yos, but they are low profile in the 2013 catalogue, particularly Lis Mara. Santanna Blue Chip’s yearlings last year (not many) were lovely looking types and he has 10 yearlings in the 2013 sales, and Art Official also has 10, but both would have probably liked a few more (out of 500 plus on sale) to show off at the premium sales days. Real Desire is well down on numbers, but was well down on foals for that year so that is no surprise. McArdle is struggling for a sales profile although on the track is fillies (which in the past seemed his weak point) have started to show up and there are some nice colts currently racing by him as well. Given the nice type he produces and the large number of foals he had, I would have expected to see some more Gotta Go Cullects.

The winner, apart from Bettor’s Delight and runner up Art Major, is Changeover – with a total of 39 yearlings mainly in the South Island sales, he can display enough range of type and mares to make his mark if they are up to scratch. Christian Cullen may also have a good year for vendors, with fewer for buyers to choose from and a lower service fee giving a better profit margin, and there are some good mares still being loyal to the king!

So there are plenty of sires represented, butmost do not have the numbers they really need to make an impact, an impression. One factor may be that the range of sires that produced this 2013 yearling sale crop of yearlings was not as great in number or as exciting (in terms of new sires in the higher fee/commercial bracket) as what we have had this current breeding season, for example.  Another factor is that the economical climate was rapidly changing, contracting, and breeders for potential sale horses responded to that, I guess, by playing it safe. And Bettor’s Delight is about as safe and sure as you can get these days. And yet another factor may be the contraction of our breeding mare population and too many sires to choose from, particularly in the affordable end of the service fee, which means (1) many sires get fewer mares and (2) breeders may opt to put their mares to cheaper sires and bypass the expense of yearling sale preparation and commercial risk this time around.

The dominance of Bettor’s Delight has some pros and cons, I believe.

Firstly the pros –

  • He is a top, proven sire and adds a lot of quality in terms of producing a good percentage of starters/winners to foals
  • He is known as a sire who injects speed into many of his progeny, although part of that may be attributable to his ‘golden cross’ with In The Pocket mares and others who carry speed genes themselves;
  • His pedigree is quite an outcross for many of our mares and includes elements like a successful branch of the Cam Fella siring line (Cam’s Card Shark) and the excellent maternal line of his dam Classic Wish (which I examined in a previous blog that looked at his full brother Roll With Joe).

The cons –

  • Any dominance of a sire carries with it the risk that the future mare breeding pool is skewed until market forces and time even it out again;
  • His sheer volume of foals continues to pour Bettor’s Delight yearlings into the mix, and subsequently oversupplying the market and risking poorer returns for those who bred to him;
  • He overshadows some really top new sires who may not remain available to us if they cannot get the numbers or quality of mares they deserve.

Longer term opportunities:

  • The stud that finds the sire or sires who appear to click brilliantly with Bettor’s Delight mares will have a field day;
  • These sires may very well be our own ‘colonial’ bred sires with their quirky pedigree structures and their underlying influences of Tar Heel, Direct Scooter, Albatross, Most Happy Fella etc so ironically this dominance of Bettor’s Delight could aid the success of New Zealand bred sires who are arriving at just the right time.
  • Breeders that have already moved to other quality sires will pick up the benefits at future sales as the buying market shifts.

That’s a long blog, but a fascinating issue. Please leave comments or email me direct on bee.raglan@xtra.co.nz and I will continue looking at this issue and other views on it in future.

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